ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

95A INVEST 150603 1200 8.5N 65.7E IO 15 1010

[Alyono]

very well could have a devastating and deadly cyclone for Pakistan and Iran

[galaxy401]

When was the last time a cyclone made landfall at Pakistan/Iran?

[Alyono]

didn't the eye of the 1999 cyclone strike India first, resulting in a significantly weakened system going into Pakistan? Also, Phet plowed into Oman before reaching Pakistan

[Alyono]

getting closer to TD status

does not look as if it will be an intense cyclone though. Models have really backed off. Maybe a weak to moderate TC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

getting closer to TD status

does not look as if it will be an intense cyclone though. Models have really backed off. Maybe a weak to moderate TC

Just like what you said during Rammasun, models showed a TD or TS (backed off) but actually it was a cat 3 typhoon over central Philippines

Maybe an intense (but not super) from this

[Yellow Evan]

06/1430 UTC 14.0N 68.2E T1.5/1.5 95A -- Arabian Sea

[Yellow Evan]

Also why this is labelled as a SWIO storm?

[jaguarjace]

95A INVEST 150607 0000 15.1N 68.7E IO 25 1004


Meteosat-10 on left, Meteosat-7 on right.

[cycloneye]

jaguarjace,if this forms into a TC,what name it will use?

[jaguarjace]

jaguarjace,if this forms into a TC,what name it will use?

Ashobaa, contributed by Sri Lanka.

[Cyclenall]

NRL has this as 01A.ONE. I look forward to tracking this odd storm-to-be.

[jaguarjace]

01A ONE 150607 0600 15.5N 68.5E IO 35 996


Meteosat-10 left, Meteosat-7 right.

[euro6208]

Cyclone strength south of Pakistan before weakening...

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.2N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.6N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.3N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

[salmon123]

latest map

[jaguarjace]

01A ONE 150607 1200 16.0N 68.6E IO 35 996

[euro6208]

Cyclone landfalls as per model looks the best solution to me atm. Kinda strange also displays a mirroring cyclone @5 S of the equator

Strong MJO in the basin no doubt...After this, it should move into the WPAC. It should be interesting...

[Alyono]

back to not looking good at all for the area. May stall near the coast, which may produce flooding far worse than that what occurred in Yemyin

[Alyono]

rapidscat earlier today showed 40 kt winds

[jaguarjace]

Created using Meteosat-7 imagery.