ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURRICANELONNY]

How do I find the SST of other years like June '97 or June '82?

For each NINO zone, click on this link and scroll down to "SST and Other Climate Series." You will find links to NINO 1+2, 3, and 4. For overall SST since 1950, I would use this source. The latter link explicitly bases its data on NINO 3.4. Interestingly, the June 2015 ECMWF forecast for NINO 3.4 (+2.4-2.5° C departure) would make the current Niño on a par with those in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the two strongest on record since 1950. It would also match the event in 1877-78, which was also among the very st
rongest measured.[/qA

Awesome info. Thanks

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño regions are back to warming, maybe 1.4C or greater, 1.5C Niño 3 and >2C for Niño 1+2

[Dean_175]

SOI dailies have been mostly positive for some time now, and 30 day SOI is now over (less negative than) -8. We are losing the big negatives we saw last month and gaining some positives- so 30 day should continue to rise. I think a lot of this has to do with the MJO- which has been over Indian Ocean (Phase 2). MJO should continue to be unfavorable for at least the next 2 weeks per the GFS.

El Nino still looking pretty impressive- almost resembles 1997 at this time of year. However, 1997 saw significant cooling near Australia and far West Pacific, as well as strong negative SOI in June (under -20!) - which would have been more favorable then. Warming this year is much more sporadic vs 1997 - which was pretty sustained and rapid starting mid-late May.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI dailies have been mostly positive for some time now, and 30 day SOI is now over (less negative than) -8. We are losing the big negatives we saw last month and gaining some positives- so 30 day should continue to rise. I think a lot of this has to do with the MJO- which has been over Indian Ocean (Phase 2). MJO should continue to be unfavorable for at least the next 2 weeks per the GFS.

El Nino still looking pretty impressive- almost resembles 1997 at this time of year. However, 1997 saw significant cooling near Australia and far West Pacific, as well as strong negative SOI in June (under -20!) - which would have been more favorable then. Warming this year is much more sporadic vs 1997 - which was pretty sustained and rapid starting mid-late May.

SOI rise maybe a result of the MJO passing the unfavorable region of the Indian Ocean

[LarryWx]

Per the 0Z 6/10 Euro, there are finally signs suggesting at least a few days of strongly -SOI's. The SOI would fall rather sharply from 6/17 through around 6/20 though the SOI could then rebound soon afterward. We'll see.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the updates Larry. 2015's June SOI is definitely not comparable to that of 1997. That year really kicks off in June and while we have kept pace I think 1997 will start breaking away soon. But that's not to say 2015 is whimpy either. It is still comparable to that of the strongest Nino's.

[Hurricaneman]

One + for El Nino is that there are now - anomalies around Austraila which aids in the -SOI so I think that the -SOI will continue overall until January

[cycloneye]

CPC June update has greater than 90% of having El Nino thru Fall and greater than 85% thru Winter.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory




Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Very interesting CPC Blog discussing about the June update:

El Niño continues to pick up steam. NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance). Now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier, this month’s update provides a first guess of the potential strength of El Niño. It’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, so we are less confident about that, but forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” we mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region will peak at more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... peed-ahead

[HURRICANELONNY]

Good read:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3015

[NDG]

Nice to see that climatologists are starting to admit that this El Nino had a lot to do with the record wet May in the south central US.

[gigabite]

Current SOI Trend Graph

[gigabite]

:uarrow: Nice to see that climatologists are starting to admit that this El Nino had a lot to do with the record wet May in the south central US.

The ENSO is an seasonal anomaly recently, globally it's been dry. I think that the position of the meteorological equator and the basic transport mechanism (The Hadly Circulation) can do that.

[NDG]

Sorry, but you make no sense to me.
The current El Nino just wiped out the drought in Texas, that's the fact, it would had been hard to have happened if we would had been in a La Nina or maybe even a neutral ENSO, IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: Sorry, but you make no sense to me.
The current El Nino just wiped out the drought in Texas, that's the fact, it would had been hard to have happened if we would had been in a La Nina or maybe even a neutral ENSO, IMO.

I'm sorry Gigabite, and NDG I concur with your statement. His theory is verifying horribly and failed the prediciton of a strong Niño. He said 4 more years of neutral. That's too much

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting some thunderstorms but this El Niño has been doing bad lately here in SE Asia

[Ntxw]

PDO continued the gradual downward trend, however similar to previous months remains very high, just not record high.

Tao buoys show 2C or greater beginning to expand making progress near and just past 120w which belongs to Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 domain. At the subsurface the eastern Pacific warm pool also has expanded, greater than what was seen during the March-April-May pool.

[Ntxw]

Latest SST map. Canonical El Nino?

[Kingarabian]

Look @ 1+2

[Ntxw]

Just for comparison sake.

1997



2009



2015