EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TS Blanca weakening as it approaches to make landfall soon and it is much more weaker this morning than it is now. TS conditions will continue throughout tonight and Monday in the Baja California peninsula. This storm was pretty interesting esp. when it upwelled.



Synopsis for Blanca and other basins: http://goo.gl/Pq9vxf

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

The aerial coverage of Blanca's deep convection is decreasing due to
cold waters and southerly shear of 15 to 20 kt. The shear is also
resulting in an increasing separation between the low- and mid-level
circulations. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based
on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.
The above-mentioned negative factors and land interaction should
lead to the demise of Blanca in the next day or so, with the cyclone
forecast to become a depression in 24 hours and dissipate by 36
hours.

The decoupling of the low-level circulation has increased the
uncertainty in the center location, and the initial motion estimate
is a somewhat uncertain 345/13. A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue until Blanca dissipates as the
cyclone moves between a mid-level high to the east and a deep-layer
low to the west. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to
begin affecting portions of the southwestern United States on
Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 23.8N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 25.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 27.7N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

WTPZ32 KNHC 081148
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
600 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

...WEAKENING BLANCA MAKES LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Loreto to Punta Abreojos, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Loreto to Mulege

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The center of Tropical Storm Blanca has made landfall near Puerto
Cortes Mexico in Baja California Sur. This is the earliest
landfall of a tropical cyclone on record in the Baja California
peninsula.

At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 111.8 West. Blanca is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track the center of Blanca will move near or over portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula today through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Blanca is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Blanca will
likely dissipate near or over central or northern portions of the
Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading northward
in portions of the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area today.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern half
of the state of Baja California, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over Baja California Sur. These rains could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall associated with
Blanca and its remnants could begin to affect portions of the
southwestern United States on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These
swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[galaxy401]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 081438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

...WEAKENING BLANCA OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 112.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the southern Baja California peninsula south of La Paz
and south of Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Paz to Loreto
* Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Loreto to Mulege

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 112.0 West. Blanca is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track the center of Blanca will move near or over portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula today through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Blanca is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by
Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station at Loreto, on the
east coast of Baja California Sur, recently reported a wind gust to
46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area today.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of Baja California Sur and
the southern half of the state of Baja California, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches over Baja California Sur. There was an
unofficial rainfall total of 5.18 inches reported at Loreto. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall associated with Blanca will begin to affect the
southwestern United States today.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca near the coast of the Baja
California peninsula are expected to begin to diminish later today,
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Blanca is soon to be dissipated and has brought some Tropical Storm conditions over the Baja California Sur. It will rain itself out and bring some left moisture to the U.S. as well. However, a new invest is soon too follow now (94E).



Synopsis for Blanca and other systems: http://goo.gl/EL5xUu

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

History was made though with the earliest known tropical cyclone landfall in the Baja?

[Yellow Evan]

History was made though with the earliest known tropical cyclone landfall in the Baja?

Correct.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 PM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

Blanca's cloud pattern continues to lose organization, and deep
convection is diminishing. Assuming a continued spin down of the
circulation during the day, the current intensity is set at 30 kt.
This is also consistent with the Dvorak intensity estimate from
UW-CIMSS. Continued weakening should occur due to shear and
interaction with the Baja California peninsula, and Blanca is
expected to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. The official
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance.

The initial motion is a little faster, or 340/15 kt. Over the next
day or so, Blanca or its remnants should move north-northwestward to
northward in the flow between a high to its east and a low to its
west. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical
model consensus.

Moisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States today and
Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 26.7N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 28.3N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 30.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 32.0N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

00
WTPZ42 KNHC 090234
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 PM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

Blanca is currently a large swirl of low and mid-level clouds
centered over the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula,
with the remaining deep convection located well to the north of the
center. The initial intensity is reduced to 25 kt based mainly on
continuity from the previous advisory. The cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 12 hours or less,
with the remnant low forecast to dissipate completely between 24
and 36 hours.

The initial motion is 335/15. Over the next day or so, Blanca or
its remnants should move north-northwestward to northward in the
flow between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid and
upper-level low to its west. The new forecast track is nudged a
little to the east of the previous track based on a slight eastward
shift in the model consensus.

Moisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States tonight and
Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your
local National Weather Service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 29.3N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 31.1N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
300 AM MDT TUE JUN 09 2015

The center of Blanca is very difficult to locate. The circulation is
becoming rapidly disrupted by the effect of the high terrain, and
the system has degenerated into a remnant low. Satellite and radar
indicate that only a few patches of showers remain associated with
the low. A general northward motion about 10 kt should continue
until dissipation later today.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States tonight and
Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your
local National Weather Service office.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Blanca.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 29.0N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 09/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[HurricaneRyan]

I think I'm experiencing her remnants over here in Los Angeles County.

[Yellow Evan]

Getting cloudy here in Vegas. Love it.

[Yellow Evan]

Still bringing rain to the West. San Fran in fact got some record rains.