Gulf of Mexico: Invest 91L is up

[ronjon]

Because it shows a tropical storm

Didn't know Storm2k was the stock market. Joking

I'm kind of underwhelmed by the lack of coverage for this system. Typical GOM sleeper.

Not sure the NHC has jumped on board yet. Probably waiting for a few more model cycles. When they start upping their odds, this board will get quite active.

[cycloneye]

Because it shows a tropical storm

Didn't know Storm2k was the stock market. Joking

I'm kind of underwhelmed by the lack of coverage for this system. Typical GOM sleeper.

Not sure the NHC has jumped on board yet. Probably waiting for a few more model cycles. When they start upping their odds, this board will get quite active.

And board will go hopping when Invest is up.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico are primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This
activity is expected to move northwestward into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. Development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur due to marginal upper-level winds while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Im sure i know the answer but what is the euro making of this? A barely discernable sheared low?

Sure the cmc has it as at least a cat 4 by now

[gatorcane]

Im sure i know the answer but what is the euro making of this? A barely discernable sheared low?

Sure the cmc has it as at least a cat 4 by now

ECMWF is showing some development and moves it into Southern Texas. 72 hours below. Interesting how the ECMWF suddenly became bullish even in it's short-term guidance:

[gigabite]

The New Moon is going to be over this part of the world for the next few days. In the past there has been activity coincident with the pass.

[wxman57]

I think there's a good chance a TD or weak TS will form before it moves inland on Tuesday. Regardless, the main threat will be more heavy rain for Texas and possibly Louisiana.

[Sambucol]

I think there's a good chance a TD or weak TS will form before it moves inland on Tuesday. Regardless, the main threat will be more heavy rain for Texas and possibly Louisiana.

Any power outages probable with this system or is it just flooding rains?

[Rgv20]

18zGFS Ensembles 3 days out....Consensus is for a weak low forming, could get interesting as get closer!

[TheStormExpert]

I think there's a good chance a TD or weak TS will form before it moves inland on Tuesday. Regardless, the main threat will be more heavy rain for Texas and possibly Louisiana.

Not trying to sound absurd or anything, but if this was to develop I'd much rather see this go the additional 5mph to TS status than have a TD that when the season is all said and done never existed really. Something about those loner systems just drives me nuts! Probably the fact that named storms only get counted for.

[vbhoutex]

Time for the fun and games to begin. We do not need anymore rain in SE TX after the heavy flooding rains last month. Several days of deep moisture from the Caribbean followed my a weak tropical system could bring a significant flood event. SE TX can stand 5-6" rains before flooding becomes an issue but with a tropical environment that could occur in several hours. Time to start watching the models a little closer.

Even the local OCM are jumping on board. This seems a little early for them considering nothing at all to look at right now. I'm hoping they don't hype too much, especially if nothing much happens, at least for our area. Of course it does help wake up the public to the threat, so there is a little of a good side to it too.
I know that the consensus that has developed has me watching much more closely.

[Ntxw]

Yeah. Probably not something Texas wants to hear. Whether we get a named storm or not, the slug of moisture pairing Carlos' moisture on the other side will only aggravate the flooding potential.

[Alyono]

0Z GFS still has it, albiet weaker. It sends it into Texas a bit sooner, late Monday or early Tuesday

[Alyono]

Canadian model continues to trend weaker.

I think the 20 percent development chances are right on the money. 4 out of 5 of these systems will NOT develop based upon the expected environmental conditions, as well as the model trends.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep, looks like nothing of importance to track besides a deeper slug of moisture for Texas. Just another sheared mess that we have become accustomed to watching over the years that struggles to develop in the gulf. Might be lucky to get an invest out of this one.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up