ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

Just from eyeballing, I'd put 1997 ahead of 2015.

[Kingarabian]

Don't know how 2015 will keep up with 1997 if the SOI continues to stay mainly positive.

I think 1997 just had a rare warming rate that just snowballed.

[MGC]

:uarrow: Just from eyeballing, I'd put 1997 ahead of 2015.

Me too, and just look how cool the eastern Atlantic is off of Africa. Slow CV season?....MGC

[gigabite]

:uarrow: Just from eyeballing, I'd put 1997 ahead of 2015.

The methodology, hardware, and software changed after 2010 with the activation of GOES 15. The lookup between 2009 and 2010 could change as dramatically as the tropical storm count between the two years.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Just from eyeballing, I'd put 1997 ahead of 2015.

The methodology, hardware, and software changed after 2010 with the activation of GOES 15. The lookup between 2009 and 2010 could change as dramatically as the tropical storm count between the two years.

I don't follow.

Are you saying because of the methodology, hardware, and software change that we can't look at 2009 as inferior to 2015? What about raw data from the buoys?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Just from eyeballing, I'd put 1997 ahead of 2015.

The methodology, hardware, and software changed after 2010 with the activation of GOES 15. The lookup between 2009 and 2010 could change as dramatically as the tropical storm count between the two years.

That's like saying you can't compare two hurricanes in terms of strength from 2009 and 2010.

The difference is not major. SST's are still SST's.

[gigabite]

Any thing from analog data would be ground truth, satellite data is improved, but I don't know if the pre 2010 raw data is available to be reprocessed.

[Yellow Evan]

Any thing from analog data would be ground truth, satellite data is improved, but I don't know if the pre 2010 raw data is available to be reprocessed.

As I said, I don't think there's much of a difference. No one has questioned the reliability of records in the 2000s in the meteorological community.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What's questionable are the records prior to when the buoys were set up, maybe after the 1982 Super Niño which was a surprise event and needed more buoys to be placed and thus greatly improved the reliability of the data.

[Ntxw]

I think I can clarify that a bit. From 2009 to 2010 the "base" changed from 1971-2000 over to 1981-2010. While the actual SST's don't change the "anomaly" does base on which climo. SST's were overall cooler with the previous base state than more recent, thus the same SST's is not the exact same anomaly. However I am unsure if the difference is that significant. 2015 would need a little warmer actual SST's than 1997 to achieve the equivalent anomalies since climo is warmer just as an example.

Regardless 2015 is much more impressive than 2009 thus far using any climo. 1997 had other strong atmospheric indicators that we haven't matched yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strongest pool since 1997?

[gigabite]

I think I can clarify that a bit. From 2009 to 2010 the "base" changed from 1971-2000 over to 1981-2010. While the actual SST's don't change the "anomaly" does base on which climo. SST's were overall cooler with the previous base state than more recent, thus the same SST's is not the exact same anomaly. However I am unsure if the difference is that significant. 2015 would need a little warmer actual SST's than 1997 to achieve the equivalent anomalies since climo is warmer just as an example.

Regardless 2015 is much more impressive than 2009 thus far using any climo. 1997 had other strong atmospheric indicators that we haven't matched yet.

That is interesting I wasn’t aware of the base change. The Elements I was speaking of are data collection and processing improvements over the development history of the GOES system. The sensor resolution and frequency range have been enhanced and the resolution has been doubled. Also the software that processes the sensor data has been revised to include a process called segmentation that extracts more information per pixel.

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/ams/meteor.html
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/text/brochure ... OP_web.pdf
http://www.ijcsi.org/papers/IJCSI-11-3-1-154-160.pdf

[Ntxw]

You can see the difference by switching the ONI version at the top. For example notice how 2009 peaked at 1.8C using the 1971-2000 base climo. As SST's averages were generally cooler the anomalies were stronger via the same raw SST's. Then switch it over to the current version (1981-2010) and notice it's peak of 1.6. Generally the Nino's dropped a bit with a new base. Weird thing though is the Nino's prior to 1971 are stronger on the new base climo.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

The opposite is for La Nina's. With the warmer base the same SST's has colder Nina's than the previous base.

[LarryWx]

Although not currently updating with dailies, this weekend's SOI's are almost definitely fairly solid +'s. There will probably be a couple more days of +'s to follow. However, by 6/18-9, it looks to go to - per today's 0Z Euro. That same model also suggests that that might be the start of an extended -SOI period, quite possibly including some strong -'s by 6/24. So, where June ends up as a whole is still very much in the air. If it is going to end up solidly -, there would likely have to be a very strongly -SOI period the last week of this month to even make that possible. Otherwise, we're probably looking at anywhere from a modestly -SOI to near neutral for the full June SOI, which would diverge from the solid -SOI's for June for the analogs of either 2nd year strong to super Nino or standalone super Nino as per my June 6th post in this thread. We'll see. The rest of this month will be quite interesting to follow.

[Ntxw]

Back up to 1.3C this week

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC 6/15/15 update that has El Nino at +1.3C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

Today's 0Z Euro continues yesterday's suggestion of a strong -SOI 6/24 and suggests a very strong -SOI for 6/25. It also suggests that the remainder of June from then could easily be solidly to strongly in the -SOI's. So, the fate of June as a whole is still to be determined as there appears to be a strong push of -SOI's late. We'll see.

[cycloneye]

The June ECMWF forecast is less warm than the May one.

[LarryWx]

Today's 0Z Euro goes full steam ahead with the forecasted big SOI drop that it has shown for several days for late month with some days of the last week of June likely at least rivaling the most negative SOI's of the year to date (-40's). By 6/20, there should already be a pretty solid -SOI. It may then rise back to less negative for a couple of days. However, once we get to 6/24 and especially beyond, look out below!

I wonder if this big SOI drop will lead to major changes in the CONUS pattern by early July. Opinions?

[Ntxw]

Today's 0Z Euro goes full steam ahead with the forecasted big SOI drop that it has shown for several days for late month with some days of the last week of June likely at least rivaling the most negative SOI's of the year to date (-40's). By 6/20, there should already be a pretty solid -SOI. It may then rise back to less negative for a couple of days. However, once we get to 6/24 and especially beyond, look out below!

I wonder if this big SOI drop will lead to major changes in the CONUS pattern by early July. Opinions?

Larry have you seen the updated ONI page from the CPC? My what drastic changes they made and consequently some significant results.