ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'll give it credit, 91L is definitely trying. The ULL that was shunting all the dry air and sheer appears to relenting somewhat, and 91L's taking on a less sheared look and more of a coma look. I think it'll develop sometime within the next 36 hours.

[gatorcane]

latest 850MB vorticity chart shows greatest vorticity around the NW tip of the Yucatan:

[cycloneye]

First time on this mission that plane measures 30kts.

Peak 10-second Wind: 30 kt at 96°

[Nederlander]

latest 850MB vorticity chart shows greatest vorticity around the NW tip of the Yucatan:

Convection firing in that region as well.

[gatorcane]

Shear is decreasing across Western Gulf too. Convection, strong vorticity, lowering wind shear. Yep certainly looks like it has a good shot of developing.

[chaser1]

First time on this mission that plane measures 30kts.

Peak 10-second Wind: 30 kt at 96°

Luis, where was that wind found? (Just curious if that happen to be well to the east of the broad LLC, and convective related).

[EquusStorm]

The last few frames of the satellite loop definitely show an overall increase in convection generally in the area of the lower level circulation, almost taking on a semi-banded appearance to the north. Will be interesting to see what sort of thing this will be by tomorrow morning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[gatorcane]

Convection starting to fire on the NW side of the center of the broad low over the open Gulf waters. That convection is not looking too sheared so upper-level winds are gradually becoming more favorable across the Western Gulf.

[SouthDadeFish]

The newly firing convection to the NW looks to be directly underneath the upper-level low. That is why it does not appeared sheared. Also, this convection should act to weaken the upper-level low and therefore further decrease the environmental shear. Genesis seems pretty likely at this point. I completely agree with the 80%.

[Craters]

I've wondered about this sort of thing for a while. The convection to the W and NW of the LLC is popping in an area where the SSTs don't seem to be much different from the temperatures that the center has been over all day. THE LLC, however, has just moved into an area of greater heat potential than it's been over (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5164at.jpg), and since the temperatures are the same, that greater heat potential has to be because the depth of the warm water is greater (a gyre or loop?). I guess the best way to ask the question is this: What would the maximum depth of heat extraction be for a system like this? Would the total THCP in this case matter regarding the convection that started when it the LLC moved over that area, or was that just a coincidence?

I realize that it's a question of how fast the storm is moving and, no doubt, a bunch of other parameters, but just a rough estimate would be great. Meters? Tens or hundreds of meters?

Thanks!

[TheProfessor]

Could/is parts of Carlos' moisture feed into invest 91L?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2015061500, , BEST, 0, 226N, 913W, 35, 1007, DB

[Hurricaneman]

00z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2015061500, , BEST, 0, 226N, 913W, 35, 1007, DB

basically this will be Bill as soon as they find a LLC

[galvestontx]

Starting to get a nice circ http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,21.45,940

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/06/14/no ... n-results/

[SouthDadeFish]

I've wondered about this sort of thing for a while. The convection to the W and NW of the LLC is popping in an area where the SSTs don't seem to be much different from the temperatures that the center has been over all day. THE LLC, however, has just moved into an area of greater heat potential than it's been over (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5164at.jpg), and since the temperatures are the same, that greater heat potential has to be because the depth of the warm water is greater (a gyre or loop?). I guess the best way to ask the question is this: What would the maximum depth of heat extraction be for a system like this? Would the total THCP in this case matter regarding the convection that started when it the LLC moved over that area, or was that just a coincidence?

I realize that it's a question of how fast the storm is moving and, no doubt, a bunch of other parameters, but just a rough estimate would be great. Meters? Tens or hundreds of meters?

Thanks!

While I must admit I am by no means an ocean-atmosphere interaction expert, I do believe a system would have to be much stronger for TCHP to matter. TCHP seems to be most important for hurricanes, and especially major hurricanes, where mixing is greater due to the stronger wind speeds. Unless the system is stationary for a few days or there is an abnormally shallow warm layer, SSTs are usually sufficient to look at for tropical depressions or weak tropical storms. For this system in particular I'm not too sure TCHP is necessary to analyze. I hope this helps.

[Craters]

I've wondered about this sort of thing for a while. The convection to the W and NW of the LLC is popping in an area where the SSTs don't seem to be much different from the temperatures that the center has been over all day. THE LLC, however, has just moved into an area of greater heat potential than it's been over (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5164at.jpg), and since the temperatures are the same, that greater heat potential has to be because the depth of the warm water is greater (a gyre or loop?). I guess the best way to ask the question is this: What would the maximum depth of heat extraction be for a system like this? Would the total THCP in this case matter regarding the convection that started when it the LLC moved over that area, or was that just a coincidence?

I realize that it's a question of how fast the storm is moving and, no doubt, a bunch of other parameters, but just a rough estimate would be great. Meters? Tens or hundreds of meters?

Thanks!

While I must admit I am by no means an ocean-atmosphere interaction expert, I do believe a system would have to be much stronger for TCHP to matter. TCHP seems to be most important for hurricanes, and especially major hurricanes, where mixing is greater due to the stronger wind speeds. Unless the system is stationary for a few days or there is an abnormally shallow warm layer, SSTs are usually sufficient to look at for tropical depressions or weak tropical storms. For this system in particular I'm not too sure TCHP is necessary to analyze. I hope this helps.

Yep -- makes all kinds of sense. Thanks a million, SouthDadeFish!

[tolakram]

Live IR loop with a fairly rapid scan.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-90&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Color version

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-90&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[HurriGuy]

It sure does look like a circulation wants to form further east closer to the convection where there is blowup occurring right now.