ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[vbhoutex]

Could/is parts of Carlos' moisture feed into invest 91L?

I just looked at a sat image that would suggest that it is starting to happen on a limited basis at this time. Tomorrow will be more telling I think, but I could follow the "moisture" from Carlos to 91Ls "feed" from the S and SW. I've been wondering when/if this was going to happen.

[southerngale]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 150600
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours. The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

The 06z surface analysis points torwards Coupus Christi so east of that point is where the bad weather will occur.

[Nimbus]

Peak wind speeds look high enough to warrant a named storm in the near future, probably timed with the new recon flight.
The future moisture envelope will determine precipitation amounts.
When Carlos makes landfall his precipitation shield will expand but there is still a lot of dry air over the TexMex land mass.
We've seen more than one storm turn from a Wetvac to a Dryvac as it approached the Texas coast so there is still hope.

[KatDaddy]

Not much has changed overnight as the tropical low remains disorganized. The NHC has this area up to 80% for tropical development and we could see TS Bill before it moves onshore along the TX Coast this week. The Houston-Galveston NWS will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch this afternoon with models still showing widespread 5-7" rains with some areas receiving >10" totals. In addition, the SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather for the Middle and Upper TX Coast as well as SW LA due to the right-front quadrant of the tropical low.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical system to impact Texas over the next 24-48 hours

Excessive rainfall will potentially produce a dangerous and life threatening flash flood event over portions of SE TX and SC TX.

Discussion:
There has been little change in the overall organization of 91L overnight as the broad surface low remains tangled with an upper level trough. Recon yesterday evening did find a large area of 35-45mph winds over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the next plane will be in the system this morning. Conditions remain marginally favorable for development, but gradually improve today and into tonight. It is possible that 91L may not be purely tropical as it moves inland and this is suggested by some of the computer guidance which actually shows the system intensifying more as it moves inland and interacts with the tail end of an upper level trough…similar to TS Hermine and TS Erin.

Track:
After a very tightly track guidance cluster…more spread has crept into the models overnight and there has been a slight shift toward the west. Generally, the models remain in decent agreement on a landfall along the middle TX coast between Palacios and Rockport which places all of the upper TX coast on the “dirty” side of the system. This track is a little more uncertain than yesterday as to when the northward turn will take place over TX as the system rounds the western edge of the sub-tropical high over the SE US. Timing remains in good agreement with the system approaching the coast late tonight into early Tuesday and then inland on Tuesday. It is important to not focus on the exact track of the center given such a large and disorganized system. Most of the impacts will be east and extend well away of the actual center.

Intensity:
Little change in this aspect with a weak tropical storm the most likely event at landfall. The system looks poorly organized into landfall and then shows some degree of organization post landfall over the coastal bend and central TX. Impacts will be roughly the same if it stays as it is or is upgraded to a tropical storm.

Impacts:

Rainfall:

Rainfall remains the largest threat with this system and a significant threat.

Average rainfall amounts of 5-7 inches with isolated totals of 10-12 inches are possible along and to the east of where the center moves inland. WPC and model guidance has a swath of very heavy rainfall from roughly Galveston Bay to Matagorda Bay and inland to NE TX over the next 2-4 days along the eastern flank of the circulation. Main concerns will be training of south to north feeder bands on the eastern side of the circulation and potential for any nighttime core rainfall which the Texas Tech model is suggesting for portions of SC and SE TX late tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night.

Moisture levels continue to support very high hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches which will result in rapid flooding problems.

A flash flood watch will be issued for the entire region this afternoon.

Tides:
No change to the forecast tides. Tides are running about a foot above normal this morning on the Gulf beaches and up to 1.5 ft above normal in the bays. Critical high tide will be Tuesday morning in combination with strongest onshore winds on eastern side of surface center. Storm surge guidance is slightly higher this morning…nearing 2.0 ft with a total water level at Galveston 0f up to 3.0 ft Tuesday morning. The more organized the system becomes the high the tides will go due to wave run-up and stronger winds.

Tropical storm conditions will arrive into our coastal waters late this afternoon and then spread toward the coast tonight. Offshore seas will build to near 8-12 ft with nearshore seas 6-8 feet which will also bring a decent volume of water toward the coast. Will be very close to the critical 4.0 ft tide levels on Tuesday morning and only expecting a slow fall with sustained onshore winds all day Tuesday into Wednesday.

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will be possible along the coast starting late tonight and into Tuesday as the circulation makes landfall. Winds of 35-45mph will be likely offshore, inland bays, and along the coast with speeds of 25-35mph inland.

Tornadoes:
SE TX will fall in the favored tornado production section of the landfalling system with models showing good feeder band structures across the area. Expect the tornado threat to increase this afternoon and remain tonight into Tuesday as bands move inland off the Gulf of Mexico

Will await the newest recon data this morning. An upgrade will require some forecast changes mainly to the winds and wind fields…depending on what the plane finds. Other impacts should remain generally unchanged.

[tailgater]

Some pretty good seas out in the middle of the GOM

Conditions at 42001 as of
(5:50 am CDT)
1050 GMT on 06/15/2015:


Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] GMT+4 Pakistan Standard [GMT+5] GMT+6 Indochina Time [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 16.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.5 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity with the broad area of low pressure in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated
this morning. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its
investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the
low-level circulation has become any better defined since yesterday.
Satellite observations overnight suggest that the low continues to
produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development while this system moves northwestward across the
western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast
sometime tomorrow.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring
heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern
Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see
High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 12m12 minutes ago
1st pass from recon shows more character than ystdy - need all the data before knowing anything tho #AL91 #91L

[SouthDadeFish]

Low level cloud motions show a surface circulation may be forming, although it does look a bit elongated N-S. Still better than yesterday though. Convection on the increase.

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear that the trough has become elongated more North to South than SW to NE. Just looking at morning visibles it does appear to be trying to close off loosely.

[Hurricaneman]

Does appear that the trough has become elongated more North to South than SW to NE. Just looking at morning visibles it does appear to be trying to close off loosely.

doesn't quite look closed to me so no tropical cyclone IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

its closed

[srainhoutx]

its closed

It certainly is.

[Hurricaneman]

its closed

If so this will be Bill at 11AM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Live visible:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

Looks much better defined this morning.

[tolakram]

Latest

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2015061512, , BEST, 0, 245N, 930W, 35, 1006, LO

[wxman57]

Looks like a closed circulation but it's north of where the models initialized - maybe 25.3N/92.7W. Still la bit elongated. Not a TS yet but probably will be later this afternoon. Still appears to be only a flooding threat for Texas.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm force winds are being measured by plane.

39 kt at 144°