ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I shake my head in amazement at this ACADEMIC decision

[tatertawt24]

It definitely looks better than I thought it would when I went to bed last night!

[Tireman4]

I shake my head in amazement at this ACADEMIC decision

So, they will wait and satellite watch..if it makes a serious move for intensification, then call it?

[stormlover2013]

Aloyno, which way is it moving is it moving nw? Also where do u have the center At?

[Alyono]

looks like wnw to nw. Seems to be near 26N, 93W

[Stormcenter]

This is not the first time the NHC has decided not to upgrade a disturbance when it seems as though they obviously should and I'm sure it won't be the last. IMO

[stormlover2013]

Thanks man, with it being little bit more north does that change the Path any?

[Jag95]

Just looking at the satellite above, it almost looks like 2 areas of circulation. One above 27 and the other around 25. Maybe an illusion, or maybe what they mean by "highly elongated".

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im wactching the data as it comes in on Google earth. Is the COC moving that quickly or are there multiple centers? For them to not call this an official cyclone seems strange. Ive seen many strong tropical storms not be anywhere near the organization level of this storm

[PauleinHouston]

I shake my head in amazement at this ACADEMIC decision

I think it must be the new "political correctness" thing that we are seeing here. I mean hey, we don't want to offend anyone or especially the system itself by calling it something that it's obviously not (but really is).

If this was threatening the East coast, it would be all over CNN and the end of the world would be near!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

[Alyono]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

a step behind the private sector

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Unless the definition is changed, if the system doesn't have a well-defined center, it's not a tropical cyclone. The public needs to pay attention to the statements from their local weather service on the approaching weather system.

[BigA]

Just looking at the satellite above, it almost looks like 2 areas of circulation. One above 27 and the other around 25. Maybe an illusion, or maybe what they mean by "highly elongated".

I think you may be right, and such a feature is consistent with an elongated trough with multiple mesoscale vorticity maxima (if that is indeed the case now).

In the last couple of hours, it looks as if the circulation/vorticity near 25 North is becoming dominant, with increasing convection over the area and a trend toward greater organization. Satellite-derived upper-level maps also indicate the development of an anticyclone over 91L and the weakening influence of the UL trough. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

So if the organizational trend continues, would not be shocked if it is classified at 21Z (5 PM), though NHC may wait to see what the evening recon finds.

[PauleinHouston]

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Unless the definition is changed, if the system doesn't have a well-defined center, it's not a tropical cyclone. The public needs to pay attention to the statements from their local weather service on the approaching weather system.

Yeah, I know that of course, but wanted to have a little fun and get a laugh or two.

[BigA]

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Unless the definition is changed, if the system doesn't have a well-defined center, it's not a tropical cyclone. The public needs to pay attention to the statements from their local weather service on the approaching weather system.

Agree. There is an objective definition to these things, and the NHC cannot change the definition simply because a system happens to be closer to landfall. That said, the fact that the "well-defined center" criteria is subjective is imperfect, as one person's well-defined center could be another's poorly-defined center. But the subjectivity is necessary here (what objective criteria could be used to define well-defined?), and more to the point, the recon didn't find a single, clear center to 91L. I think the evening recon will, but this one did not.

[jeff]

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday:

"Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY"

I wish they would get on with it already....this is an operational nightmare

[SouthernMet]

I shake my head in amazement at this ACADEMIC decision

Me too, very irresponsible call IMO.

[Alyono]

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Unless the definition is changed, if the system doesn't have a well-defined center, it's not a tropical cyclone. The public needs to pay attention to the statements from their local weather service on the approaching weather system.

The fact is, we can list MANY cyclones that did not have a center as well defined as this. Erin in 2007 in aprticular had little west wind when it was named

[Alyono]

I wish recon did one more pass. The circ appears even better defined on the visible imagery in the recent frame. The westerly inflow is increasing