ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks to be organizing to me looking at the latest loop plus seems to be growing in size (anticyclone is building right over top of it allowing the clouds to fan out more). Also looks to be gaining some latitude.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/s8kppQH.gi f[/img]

I mean i can visually see a circulation there lol, maybe its different in the lower levels

[Nederlander]

Where is the center?

Looks to be near 26N 93W

[Hammy]

I see little to no change in organization from earlier, and the long loops can be a bit misleading. There appear to be two distinct areas of ration at the moment.

[NDG]

Where is the center?

Looks to be near 26N 93W

I would place it more like 26.5N & 93W
Buoy 42002 (location of 26.1N & 93.7W) is still reporting NW winds even WNW winds for brief period of time.

Continuous Winds


TIME
(CDT)



1:50 pm NW ( 310 deg ) 12.6 kts
1:40 pm WNW ( 289 deg ) 12.0 kts
1:30 pm WNW ( 292 deg ) 11.1 kts
1:20 pm NW ( 309 deg ) 10.3 kts
1:10 pm NW ( 304 deg ) 11.3 kts
1:00 pm NW ( 311 deg ) 13.4 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Nederlander]

I see little to no change in organization from earlier, and the long loops can be a bit misleading. There appear to be two distinct areas of ration at the moment.

I respectfully disagree based on imagery alone. We had the comma shape earlier and now it's getting more of a pinwheel shape to it as clouds fan out. I also don't see the two areas you are referring to.

[NDG]

Conditions on one of the oil platforms, rocking and rolling several hundred feet above the surface.

Conditions at: KVQT (VERMILION 331 , LA, US) observed 1935 UTC 15 June 2015
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.89 inches Hg (1012.3 mb)
Winds: from the SSE (160 degrees) at 38 MPH (33 knots; 17.2 m/s)
gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.25 miles (2.01 km)
Ceiling: 2800 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1200 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4500 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The beginning of a central dense overcast?

[Hammy]

I see little to no change in organization from earlier, and the long loops can be a bit misleading. There appear to be two distinct areas of ration at the moment.

I respectfully disagree based on imagery alone. We had the comma shape earlier and now it's getting more of a pinwheel shape to it as clouds fan out. I also don't see the two areas you are referring to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-rgb-long.html

27/93.5 as evidenced by earlier low cloud movement and continued eastward expansion of convection, and 25.5/92, as evidenced by low cloud movement and spiral formation. IR can be very deceiving on less organized systems. While I think it should've been upgraded hours ago, if they are waiting for better organization than we saw earlier, it looks highly unlikely it will be named.

[tropicwatch]

Showers building near suspect LLC.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

At least local authorities are being a little proactive. Galveston County has called for a voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula. There are only two ways to leave the peninsula. Hwy 124 and 87 to High Island floods very easily. The other way is by ferry and those will shut down as Galveston Bay gets rough.

[Houstonia]

Texas gov. Has activated the state operations center.

Sorry - brief. In meeting and just got the email.

[Steve]

Breezy with spotty rain moving in out the SE here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's not hard at all to see that 91L has become much better organized since this morning. The next recon flight should be in the storm around 0z--we'll see how much it has changed.

[Nederlander]

At least local authorities are being a little proactive. Galveston County has called for a voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula. There are only two ways to leave the peninsula. Hwy 124 and 87 to High Island floods very easily. The other way is by ferry and those will shut down as Galveston Bay gets rough.

Nothing official on the Bolivar Ferry yet. Typically will run until winds reach 50mph or 4.5" above normal tide. Depending on landfall, both of those numbers are in the possible range. But it's better to get out than be trapped like a lot were during Ike. (No I'm not comparing this to Ike lol. But Ike showed us how quickly Bolivar can be cut off and essentially become an island.)

[emeraldislenc]

It is looking more and more like a storm.? What are the thoughts about upgrading at 5?

[Portastorm]

No "Bill" yet. NHC just tweeted that no advisories will be issued at 5 p.m. Eastern. Next plane in system at 8 p.m.

[tailgater]

Looking at the high res satellite loop, the loose center seems to be very near that new hot tower about 30 miles to SE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

No upgrade at 5p per NHC aircraft will be there at 8p

[wicked_wx_watcher]

At least local authorities are being a little proactive. Galveston County has called for a voluntary evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula. There are only two ways to leave the peninsula. Hwy 124 and 87 to High Island floods very easily. The other way is by ferry and those will shut down as Galveston Bay gets rough.

Nothing official on the Bolivar Ferry yet. Typically will run until winds reach 50mph or 4.5" above normal tide. Depending on landfall, both of those numbers are in the possible range. But it's better to get out than be trapped like a lot were during Ike. (No I'm not comparing this to Ike lol. But Ike showed us how quickly Bolivar can be cut off and essentially become an island.)

You are absolutely right! It's so flat there, that it can take a couple of days for the water to recede and roads to become passable again. I'm not really worried about the houses. New building requirements put them well above flooding risk. I worry about damage to the dunes.

[northjaxpro]

NHC is simply waiting for Recon to confirm before upgrading when they get in there early this evening. I will say it is definitely better organized than when I last checked in earlier today around 12Z this morning.