ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#441 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:29 pm

As per what the models showed, the winds seem to be down so far from the last recon flight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#442 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:32 pm

Hammy wrote:As per what the models showed, the winds seem to be down so far from the last recon flight.


they are just descending!
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#443 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:35 pm

pressure is quite a bit lower based upon the prelim recon data. This also has resumed its 12 kts of forward speed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#444 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:35 pm

Aircraft Position: 27.02°N 93.22°W
Bearing: 270° at 214 kt
Altitude: 264 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 39 kt at 160°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.4 mb
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#445 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:35 pm

jasons wrote:Quick thoughts: Been studying some long hi-res visible loops. The system has slowed. The shear has collapsed and it's building a nice anti-cyclone on top. You can see the cirrus starting to fan out on all sides with upper-level outflow setting-up. Pretty healthy looking tropical storm ramping-up. On water vapor, you can see it's in a large moist envelope and the dry air it ingested yesterday has dissipated. I would not be surprised if this made a run for hurricane status. The story will still be the rain.



I completely agree.
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#446 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:38 pm

can someone post a satellite pic for us?-thanks
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#447 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:39 pm

Image
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#448 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:40 pm

https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783521
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#449 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:41 pm

Looks like mid level and surface circ are not stacked..
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#450 Postby hurricanekid416 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:41 pm

Itll be interesting to see what they find in the cdo like feature
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#451 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:44 pm

Aircraft Position: 27.03°N 93.83°W
Bearing: 243° at 245 kt
Altitude: 297 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 19 kt at 50°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1002.9 mb
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#452 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:44 pm

The flight level winds are already in the 40's (knots) and its not close to the center. Extrap. sfc pressure is 1006.4 MB so far. Pressure could def be dropping.
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#453 Postby psyclone » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:45 pm

Holy cow at that pressure. This duck's been quacking for awhile and it's getting louder.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#454 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aircraft Position: 27.03°N 93.83°W
Bearing: 243° at 245 kt
Altitude: 297 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 19 kt at 50°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1002.9 mb



Wow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#455 Postby ROCK » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:45 pm

1002MB wow and not named...lol
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#456 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like mid level and surface circ are not stacked..


I agree but they are getting closer. With the persistent convection firing near the LLC it's only a matter of time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#457 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:47 pm

ROCK wrote:1002MB wow and not named...lol



It is too elongated Rock..come on man...this is a Tropical Banana...:)
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#458 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:47 pm

maybe the center isn't circular enough for NHC to upgrade
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#459 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:47 pm

:uarrow: Recon hasn't even reached the apparent Low level center yet. Definitely appears to be a moderately level TS down there currently. We will know shortly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#460 Postby wkwally » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:47 pm

Well with this info if they do not pull the trigger by the next advisory call me mud
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