ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

There is that 1002.9 reading but looks a little broad.

[Alyono]

<sarcasm>maybe we will see NHC downgrading a cat 5 because the eye is elliptical. Technically, that is elongated </sarcasm>

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like mid level and surface circ are not stacked..

I agree but they are getting closer. With the persistent convection firing near the LLC it's only a matter of time.

yeah it wont take much more.

[ROCK]

it might make a run at a weak cat1 at this rate and never be named...

[BigA]

I'm not sure if the first recon look we have got the center. The wind shifts from SSE to ENE, which would indicate to me that recon flew north of the center (assuming a closed cyclonic flow, which we aren't sure of at the moment)

[SouthDadeFish]

Outflow is beginning to expand to the NW. Conditions looks good for intensification if the circulation centers can become vertically aligned.

[Tireman4]

<sarcasm>maybe we will see NHC downgrading a cat 5 because the eye is elliptical. Technically, that is elongated </sarcasm>

You know they will never live this down. LOL. Never.

[Tireman4]

it might make a run at a weak cat1 at this rate and never be named...

Hey a 75 MPH swirl....

[Blinhart]

Or it might go from invest 91L to Hurricane Bill just skipping TD and TS.

[galaxy401]

Winds seem to be around 45-50 mph as well judging by recon.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sure if the first recon look we have got the center. The wind shifts from SSE to ENE, which would indicate to me that recon flew north of the center (assuming a closed cyclonic flow, which we aren't sure of at the moment)

It's weird the they flew WNW when the winds were out of the SE... Doesn't really make sense. They must have saw something on radar? I think they missed it too. Pressure could be near 1001-1002 mb.

[wkwally]

it might make a run at a weak cat1 at this rate and never be named...

I like your thinking

[cycloneye]

Aircraft Position: 26.63°N 94.18°W
Bearing: 180° at 120 kt
Altitude: 298 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 287°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1004.8 mb

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe there seeing two vorts... if there is one farther south that will be the one to watch as its under the MLC

[cycloneye]

Maybe there seeing two vorts... if there is one farther south that will be the one to watch as its under the MLC

Yes,they passed one with 1002.9mbs and now going south.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This is still a mission to find a center, so I think they are circling around it, not doing a normal alpha pattern they would do had it already had a well defined LLC on a previous mission.

[CrazyC83]

If they find a center, it looks like winds will go down at 45 kt based on the Recon findings.

[hurricanekid416]

They need to get watches and warnings out asap

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

Question.... where do you guys think the LLC is vs the MLC? Right in the middle of the burst looks like a good place to call the center of the storm right now but what do the professional mets think?

I also think the storm has slowed down after staring at this for about 1 minute.

[CrazyC83]

They need to get watches and warnings out asap

There would be a Tropical Storm Warning issued the moment of the first advisory. But they really can't issue them without a classified TC...the hazards have to be covered separately through High Wind Warnings and (Flash) Flood Watches.