ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[PauleinHouston]

I can't fathom why this system hasn't been upgraded yet. This is some Porenza-level dysfunction.

Unless they rush a Special Advisory, it would be in 2 hours or so.

Needs a special now...they found CoC and it doesn't appear "elongated".

Aircraft Position: 27.02°N 93.52°W
Bearing: 45° at 161 kt
Altitude: 330 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 48 kt at 178°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.6 mb

SFMR winds at 0023 UTC over 53 kts

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2015061600, , BEST, 0, 268N, 939W, 45, 1005, DB

How far is it from Galveston? What, less that 300 miles?

200.

[Tireman4]

AL, 91, 2015061600, , BEST, 0, 268N, 939W, 45, 1005, DB

How far is it from Galveston? What, less that 300 miles?

200.

Thought so....

[northjaxpro]

I tell you one thing, I would love to be a fly on the wall inside the NHC while they are deliberating to name this system currently....

[davidiowx]

Looks to be getting better organized.

[wkwally]

Think they will wait until 1000PM EST??????????

[Hammy]

Think they will wait until 1000PM EST??????????

no VDM, looks like they're going to let this go unnamed

[Alyono]

likely mb will begin to rise now as this approaches land may even see it upto 1007 over water before any land fall.




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why do you think the pressure will rise? I would think it would drop a bit more as environmental conditions have become more favorable, and this is consolidating

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Coordinates updated slightly for best track at 8pm: 27.0N 94.0W

[stormlover2013]

What position did they find the center?

[Tireman4]

likely mb will begin to rise now as this approaches land may even see it upto 1007 over water before any land fall.




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why do you think the pressure will rise? I would think it would drop a bit more as environmental conditions have become more favorable, and this is consolidating

I totally agree with Alyono. There is warmer water coming up..the environment will be ripe....

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[ROCK]

likely mb will begin to rise now as this approaches land may even see it upto 1007 over water before any land fall.




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Not sure why it would do that since its deepening now and waters are 85F all the way to the beach.

[wkwally]

Looking like Matagora bay but this is my uneducated guess, If so Houston will be swamped

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[TexasF6]

This whole not naming vs naming thing is a bit unnerving. They have named far worse looking storms than Proto-Bill. The COC is visible from Corpus's long range radar. Looks to be chugging WNW IMO. My fear is the rains. Rain is already happening across Texas. When Bill, err, Proto-BILL arrives? Whoa Nelly its gonna be interesting to watch............Has Carlos's shield been tapped for moisture streaming into Texas as well? It looked like it was this morning......be safe everyone....alert everyone you can in the path of this coming flood.....










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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Stanby my earlier prediction of a weak cat 1 at landfall. If it continues to tighhten up, could get interesting. Purely on looking at this storm, lack or shear, great outflow... it's in a favorable position for strengthening.


As far as the rain, one thing i noticed is after the storm makes landfall, the feeder bands on the southern edge of the storm will drape itself over a particular part of SE Texas and not move with the storm. Sounds like this type of scenario will occur on Wednesday. I think this will be our main concern.

[davidiowx]

Stanby my earlier prediction of a weak cat 1 at landfall. If it continues to tighhten up, could get interesting. Purely on looking at this storm, lack or shear, great outflow... it's in a favorable position for strengthening.


As far as the rain, one thing i noticed is after the storm makes landfall, the feeder bands on the southern edge of the storm will drape itself over a particular part of SE Texas and not move with the storm. Sounds like this type of scenario will occur on Wednesday. I think this will be our main concern.

Which may be quite a surprise for many people. I would think if it were to strengthen quickly, as it appears to be doing, it would move further North than the models are depicting. Though model watching has been out of the window as far as probable landfalls for most of the day, the media continues to throw them on the TV every chance they get.

[cycloneye]

Plane climbing so mission is over.

[PauleinHouston]

Well, Recon has climbed back up to over FL 270...are they "happy" yet? Either a yes or they have a mechanical issue.

[wkwally]

Wow I think you all are right as I am starting to think that this will be a cat 1 before landfall

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[tropicwatch]

I think there is a good possibility of this coming in pretty close to Galveston base on the past few positions of the suspected coc.

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