2015 Global model runs discussion

[WPBWeather]

The super long-range CFS (North America view) finally is showing some life for the first time this hurricane season. How is this for entertainment at 2000+ hours out! (Aug 29th)?!?



In the long run, we're all dead anyway. JM Keynes (not a Pro Met)

But in the meantime, thar she blows.

[fendie]

Low pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and in the BoC at 90-96 hrs on the 0z GFS.

90 hrs



96 hrs

[lrak]

I know its the CMC but it shows a nasty storm heading to CC TX. Possible surf ???

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is kinda on board now also!!!

[stormlover2013]

And euro

[BigA]

As of now, the GFS, CMC, ECMWF and NAVGEM all develop a weak (minimum pressure of 1001-1007 hPa) area of low pressure in the central/western GOM. So it seems that there will be at least a chance of tropical development there. As alluded to in the NHC outlook, vertical wind shear could hamper development, though shear in the western Gulf looks a bit more favorable than in the central Gulf. So the upshot as I see it is that there is a decent chance of a weak TC in the western Gulf in the next 3-4 days. Texas looks like the most likely destination*, and of course they don't need any more rain in the short term.

However, we have to see if the 18Z and 00Z models show the same low formation.

*Of course, predicting path before TC formation is very error-prone.

[stormlover2013]

No doubt!!! Keep us posted

[Hammy]

While I doubt development will occur, it's interesting to note that -once again- after vanishing for several days, the Euro is back to developing a low within the 72 hour mark.

[Kludge]

Texas looks like the most likely destination*, and of course they don't need any more rain in the short term.

I think many folks in SE Texas might challenge that thinking. While Texas was submerged in May, most haven't seen a drop in June. Several non-severe inches would be welcome about now. There are still many lakes way below capacity.

[BigA]

Texas looks like the most likely destination*, and of course they don't need any more rain in the short term.

I think many folks in SE Texas might challenge that thinking. While Texas was submerged in May, most haven't seen a drop in June. Several non-severe inches would be welcome about now. There are still many lakes way below capacity.

Fair enough. I thought I remember seeing that the SE Texas reservoirs are near capacity, but the lakes might be a different story. Here are some links to the lakes, stream flow, and reservoir conditions there:

http://www.lakelevels.info/?StateID=TX

http://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

[gatorcane]

ECMWF suddenly shows some possible development when it was showing not much in the previous runs. Also within 72 hours. Sends the system into Southern Texas.

[mpic]

I guess it depends on your definition of Se texas. All the rivers around Livingston are over their banks and continue rising because the dams are having to release more and more water. It is raining now and we have more than the ground can handle.

[chaser1]

Just a curious observation but the EURO is really maintaining low pressure for the SW Caribbean. In fact it appears that at 240 hr., a 1006 low lifts north from S. America and into the far Southern Caribbean. Then again, it also appears that increased 500mb ridging is starting to build west from the Central Atlantic thus likely to shunt any developing system that far south, into Central America.

[Steve H.]

Nice spin in the east-central Atlantic - any of the models show anything out there? Way early for MDR.

[gatorcane]

well the ECMWF shows a defined low now tracking WNW towards the Leewards from this area, eventually it fizzles. Interesting...

Maybe this tropical wave / low can make all the way to South Florida as we are entering a drought and need the rain along the SE Coast.

[northjaxpro]

well the ECMWF shows a defined low now tracking WNW towards the Leewards from this area, eventually it fizzles. Interesting...

Maybe this tropical wave / low can make all the way to South Florida as we are entering a drought and need the rain along the SE Coast.

We need the rain just about everywhere across the Florida peninsula, except for the west coast areas of the state due to this stubborn ridging pattern. No end in sight with this pattern.

[WPBWeather]

http://imageshack.com/a/img537/1840/2Z3bvl.png
GFS closes that low off South of Florida.

Good catch.

I hope it's correct, rain wise anyway.

[TexasF6]

Any model support for the low over Belieze/Yucatan? Cloud tops are cooling now, but a nice spin is over land working NW...

[tropicwatch]

Was watching that earlier. Haven't seen any model support yet.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know that the major, reliable global models don't show anything, but I would keep an eye on the first week of July. The ECMWF and the GFS have been fairly consistent in rebuilding the Bermuda High westward in the wake of several shortwave impulses off the East Coast around days 6-10. One of those impulses could spin up some vorticity off the east coast of FL and spawn a tropical storm. Climatology would favor formation in that area. Furthermore, the timing coincides nicely with upper-level divergence associated with the MJO arriving in the western Atlantic basin. That could allow anticyclonic flow to form over the region and allow vertical shear to relax. In fact, models do suggest reduced shear off the east coast of FL toward the end of the first week of July. I would definitely keep an eye out and watch for models to start signaling development.