Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean

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gatorcane
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Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean

#1 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:15 pm

Kindaof an intriguing area in the South-Central Atlantic with the ECMWF and GEM models trying to close off a low from this area in the next 72 hours

Has some nice spin. Obviously it has a lot of things stacked against it for development given climatology, the shear zone out ahead of it, and the lack of any big thunderstorm development. SAL and shear should keep this in check.

You can see the area here in this SAT image heading west:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:50 am, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:20 pm

SAL and shear will probably keep this from developing down the road. I will start paying more attention out there in that part of the Tropical Atlantic come late July into August.
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#3 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:24 pm

SAL is pretty tough right now all the way to the Caribbean.
Image
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in the South-Central Atlantic

#4 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:26 pm

This is a classic wave moving west dry air diving down in front of it.
Time to update my Central Atlantic loop to flash player.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in the South-Central Atlantic

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:37 pm

Hopefully,this wave brings some needed rain to Puerto Rico and many of the islands that are going thru a drought right now.

ALTHOUGH TUTT PATTERN IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE TUTT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in the South-Central Atlantic

#6 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 18, 2015 3:33 pm

I don't hold out much hope for rain in PR, cycloneye. This wave will probably traverse the Caribbean with little or no convection. I'm afraid that the Euro is predicting even drier conditions there than last year.
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:56 pm

Nice flare up of storms this evening. Latest GFS run sends this through Puerto Rico and Bahamas after that. Hopefully it makes it to Florida to bring us some much needed rainfall.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in the South-Central Atlantic

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:57 pm

May need to be watched if and only if it can get north of the islands as theres quite a bit of shear in the MDR

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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in the South-Central Atlantic

#9 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:46 pm

Image this close up area
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 19, 2015 9:22 am

Nice looking wave with convection on the increase and spin very evident. Guidance continues to bring this vigorous wave through the NE Leewards, Puerto Rico and possibly Bahamas after that. Hopefully it will bring some rain to these areas and still hoping it reaches Southern Florida as it would definitely bring some much needed rainfall.

Image
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#11 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jun 19, 2015 9:30 am

This morning I have to say that this is the best this wave as looked on satellite thus far. The wave is holding together somewhat for now, but it is fighting against the SAL and eventual shear once it approaches the NE Caribbean. I still don't anticipate development, but the wave may hold together enough to bring rain to the NE Caribbean Islands the next few days.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 19, 2015 9:35 am

It's interesting to note the global models are actually decreasing the shear some in the area just east of the Leewards in the MDR by days 4 and 5 while keeping strong shear across the Caribbean Sea. Shear north of the Caribbean doesn't look that bad. For example look at current and day 4 00Z ECMWF vertical shear map below (bottom left map):

if the dry air, subsidence, and SAL don't kill it and if the wave can head north of the Caribbean, it just may have a chance if it can find some favorable conditions further down the line (like 7+ days out). Chances are it won't make it but will be interesting to see how much of a fighter this wave ends up being.

Current:
Image

4 days out:
Image
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#13 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:01 am

With the SAL as strong as it is I am surprised to see this much moisture with the wave this morning.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#14 Postby Frank2 » Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:24 pm

It does look fairly organized, but the shear (ahead of it) in the NE Caribbean is very strong right now...
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#15 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:20 pm

Still very dry out there but a small circulation could close off somewhere between 50W and PR if the shear stays light.
Be interesting to see if and when they consider it invest worthy in that case.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#16 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 19, 2015 3:58 pm

This tropical wave will hopefully bring much needed rains for the Lesser Antilles which is supported by the models.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#17 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 19, 2015 4:51 pm

The latest ULL spinning down from the TUT will be in a position to fan up some convection east of the islands initially.
May not be much left by the time it reaches the islands though, the convection is still kind of sporadic due to the SAL/dry air/subsidence.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#18 Postby StarmanHDB » Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:06 pm

It appears our wave is currently running into a wall. If it could make a sound we'd be hearing "splat"! This is SHEAR madness! 8-)
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015



AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD.
IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Southern Leewards

#20 Postby abajan » Sat Jun 20, 2015 4:03 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:... This is SHEAR madness! 8-)
Well played! :)
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