ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[LarryWx]

Today's 0Z Euro goes full steam ahead with the forecasted big SOI drop that it has shown for several days for late month with some days of the last week of June likely at least rivaling the most negative SOI's of the year to date (-40's). By 6/20, there should already be a pretty solid -SOI. It may then rise back to less negative for a couple of days. However, once we get to 6/24 and especially beyond, look out below!

I wonder if this big SOI drop will lead to major changes in the CONUS pattern by early July. Opinions?

Larry have you seen the updated ONI page from the CPC? My what drastic changes they made and consequently some significant results.

Yes. I understand the idea of warming background waters due to global warming causing the need for adjustments as it is the contrast of the equatorial Pacific with surrounding waters that is most important. However, these changes sure make it more difficult to use the same analogs. Regardless, I'm still treating the current Niño as a 2nd year Nino since it missed by only the thinnest sliver.

[Ntxw]

Yes. I understand the idea of warming background waters due to global warming causing the need for adjustments as it is the contrast of the equatorial Pacific with surrounding waters that is most important. However, these changes sure make it more difficult to use the same analogs. Regardless, I'm still treating the current Niño as a 2nd year Nino since it missed by only the thinnest sliver.

It would also downgrade 2009-10 to a fully moderate Nino, almost on par with 2002-03. 1979-1980 would be added to the list of El Nino

[LarryWx]

Yes. I understand the idea of warming background waters due to global warming causing the need for adjustments as it is the contrast of the equatorial Pacific with surrounding waters that is most important. However, these changes sure make it more difficult to use the same analogs. Regardless, I'm still treating the current Niño as a 2nd year Nino since it missed by only the thinnest sliver.

It would also downgrade 2009-10 to a fully moderate Nino, almost on par with 2002-03. 1979-1980 would be added to the list of El Nino

Actually, 2009-10 being downgraded to moderate is at least more consistent with an overall very cold E CONUS winter since strong ones are not normally cold in a widespread fashion.

[gigabite]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Is this an error? ONI not registering El Niño.

[Dean_175]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Is this an error? ONI not registering El Niño.

Nope this is not an error. I noticed that the 2009 nino intensity had changed last night when I looked- but didn't notice that the 2014 el nino was no longer registered until today. The data is slightly different- using ERSSTv4 vs ERSSTv3. 2009 is now fully moderate- whereas in the old version - 2 months were in the strong range. 2009 now peaks at 1.3C. ONI for February 2015 was 0.5 according to the previous version , but the slight difference between that and the new data drops it down to 0.4C. 5 consecutive monthly ONIs above 0.5C must occur for it to be considered an el nino event- and the 0.4C broke the chain. What I am wondering now is- where is the page for the very old version of ONI - the one that was on CPC that used a fixed base period?

[Andrew92]

Even though this is an El Nino-related post, maybe this has more of a place in a US Weather forum than a tropical weather forum. If so, you can move this to a more appropriate place Mods, but can someone also let me know?

Today tied a record in the Phoenix area at 114 degrees, with the only other time being in 1896. I think someone mentioned that year was an El Nino? I should also like to point out, since I moved here in 2007, the hottest day I can remember, it got to 118 in July 2009 - another El Nino year.

Obviously, this is only my second El Nino event since moving here, as I just missed the 2006 event, so I don't know what that year was like. But given how hot it was for a time in 2009, how hot it was today, and has been this week with continuing excessive heat warnings through the rest of the week....is there a correlation between even hotter than normal summers in Arizona with El Nino?

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

The mid-June plume of models are mostly on the Moderate to Strong El Nino camp with peak of +1.6C. Ntxw,what is your take?



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... iri_update

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Average of dynamical is 1.8C, all models 1.6C and statistical is 1.4C. Never seen a forecast agree with such high intensity

[Ntxw]

The mid-June plume of models are mostly on the Moderate to Strong El Nino camp with peak of +1.6C. Ntxw,what is your take?

Nothing really new to add, each month the models continue to get a little better. The only thing I take from it is the statistical models are catching up to the dynamical which have hovered around 1.8C for some time now. This will be a coup for the dynamical guidance as a few months ago the statistical models were too bearish.

Mid may post I made

:uarrow: The spread is high but all of them went higher than April. Of notice, even the typical bearish statistical models now average a moderate El Nino peaking at 1.2C compared to their previous idea of 0.9C in weak. The dynamical average is 1.8C or strong. The average of both is around 1.5C or moderate/strong borderline. So there is spread but the as mentioned they all went up.

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 37s37 seconds ago
Dynamical model avg predicts Aug-Oct Nino 3.4 of +1.6C - 2nd warmest value since 1950, trailing only '97 (+2.0C).

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest daily SOI shows a very large, precipitous drop to negative values, with the June 19 value being -16.50. For the first time since May 26, the 30-day SOI has decreased as well, while the rise in the 90-day SOI has slowed considerably in recent days. The overall trends match well with the ECMWF's projecting a significant -SOI regime through the remainder of June.

19 Jun 2015 1011.09 1012.15 -16.50 2.70 -5.57

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[dexterlabio]

That August-October forecast average of 1.6C tells me that there is still a shot for this to become a strong El Nino...there is a chance that it won't equal or surpass the 1997 event, but it could be included to the list with 1965, 1972, 1982...

[MiamiensisWx]

That August-October forecast average of 1.6C tells me that there is still a shot for this to become a strong El Nino...there is a chance that it won't equal or surpass the 1997 event, but it could be included to the list with 1965, 1972, 1982...

Honestly, trends have clearly been favoring strong El Niño over the past few months. The MEI has been at near-record levels (based on data since 1950) for at least a few months and has been mostly on pace with that in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. SOI is important but a bit misleading as many other factors can mask the Niño signal even when a potentially record-breaking event is oncoming. The strength of the westerly wind bursts has been quite impressive this year and is about to show itself again as the next one comes across the Pacific. My guess is that, at the very least, we'll be ahead of every post-1950 Niño except 1997-1998, and even there the indices that you use can make a difference.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 6h6 hours ago
2015 now behind 1997 #ElNino -'15 has warmer water in Niño 4 (west) so strong WWB could help it catch up. #climate

[Hurricaneman]

I don't see this going much beyond a +1.6 anomaly with that area of -sub surface temps spreading east around the ENSO3 below the warm waters indicating a change in ENSO in winter

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[LarryWx]

Looking at the SOI outlook for June:

Per the latest model consensus with an emphasis on the Euro, there is still no indication that the SOI is headed back to the strongly -SOI's that dominated most of May at least through ~6/16. So, as of now the projection for June 1-16 is for at most a modestly negative SOI. This raises the chance that June overall won't be a strongly -SOI month. IF that were to occur, it would represent a significant + diversion of this June's SOI from the solidly to strongly -SOI consensus of June for the nine analogs that I've found that were either (oncoming) 2nd year strong/super or standalone oncoming superstrong Nino's:



1997: -24.3

1987: -17.9

1982: -17.2

1972: -10.9

1940: -17.2

1905: -27.7

1896: -27.0

1888: -14.4

1877: -7.0



By the way, the July #'s were similar: -9.0, -17.3, -17.9, -17.3, -14.3, -19.8, -19.1, -15.5, -9.5

Per the 0Z 6/22 Euro, there look to be more strongly -SOI days over the next few with a bottom ~6/25-6 in the high -30's to low -40's before a rise back to near the -15 to -10 range 6/30. Based on these projections, my first rough estimate for the June SOI as a whole is for -7 to -9, which would be quite a comeback into negative territory after having been +5 MTD as late as 6/15. Regarding how this June would compare to past either 2nd year Nino's that were strong to superstrong or standalone superstrong going back to 1877-8 (nine years in the sample..see list above), this would be in range but near the lowest magnitude of negative for June, which was -7.0 in 6/1877. The average for the sample of nine is -18. It will be interesting to see how July gets going. It looks to start pretty negative with perhaps -10's on 7/2.

[Ntxw]

Update will be 1.4C this week. Another notable reading is Nino 3 is up to 1.8C

[dexterlabio]

this would further cement a moderate to strong EN event this summer...

[Ntxw]

if that comes into fruition it would signify a big WWB and given it will be July a super Nino >2.0C chances would increase.