Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

I cant see this having any chance unless this gets north of 20N which I no longer expect so I think the chances have lowered to like less than 1% of development but thats to be expected with a strong El Nino

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[Hammy]

Being ripped to shreds at the moment by shear, but still a fairly strong wave this time of year given the generally dry air and higher than normal pressures.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert for a risk ok strong showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. That's the first yellow code for both of these island as the season has begun the 1st of June. Let's see what could happens from this twave.
Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe this twave should concern Guadeloupe near 2AM and spread till 2 PM tommorow increasing showers and tstorms during the second part of the night. Amount of water reaching 60 to 90 millimeters are somewhat expected.


Here is the chart related to the yellow alert for these both islands (Martinica and Guadeloupe).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[Gustywind]

Looks like TS force winds in gusts are blowing on Barbados....



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY
HIGH AMOUNT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N
THROUGHOUT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER BARBADOS...WHERE AN
OBSERVATION AT 19 UTC INDICATED GUSTS TO 34 KT. THE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A DRIER PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RELATED TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE
WAVE WILL PASS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LOW SHIFT W OF THE AREA.

[abajan]

Yellow alert for a risk ok strong showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. That's the first yellow code for both of these island as the season has begun the 1st of June. Let's see what could happens from this twave.
Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe this twave should concern Guadeloupe near 2AM and spread till 2 PM tommorow increasing showers and tstorms during the second part of the night. Amount of water reaching 60 to 90 millimeters are somewhat expected.


Here is the chart related to the yellow alert for these both islands (Martinica and Guadeloupe).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

Stay safe, Gusty! We had wind gusts to storm force along with welcomed rain earlier today.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert for a risk ok strong showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. That's the first yellow code for both of these island as the season has begun the 1st of June. Let's see what could happens from this twave.
Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe this twave should concern Guadeloupe near 2AM and spread till 2 PM tommorow increasing showers and tstorms during the second part of the night. Amount of water reaching 60 to 90 millimeters are somewhat expected.


Here is the chart related to the yellow alert for these both islands (Martinica and Guadeloupe).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

Stay safe, Gusty! We had wind gusts to storm force along with welcomed rain earlier today.

Oh YEAH, thanks to you, hope you're always safe and dry . With that awfull drought... i can assume you that we desperately hope some well needed rain in Guadeloupe and most of the EC! You know that even better than me for sure

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015



COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC HAS ENTERED THE E
CARIBBEAN AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N56W TO
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

[wxman57]

Convection is flaring up as the wave approaches an upper-level low located north of Puerto Rico. The upper low should drift slowly west and dissipate over the next 2-3 days. As it does so, the convection should diminish. Luis - you might get some rain out of this, but no tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Convection is flaring up as the wave approaches an upper-level low located north of Puerto Rico. The upper low should drift slowly west and dissipate over the next 2-3 days. As it does so, the convection should diminish. Luis - you might get some rain out of this, but no tropical storm.

Of course no TS. but let's see how much rain we can get to at least aliviate some the drought.

[tropicwatch]

Nice flare up of convection.

[Sanibel]

It's been hotter than usual here for late June. Let's see if that translates into an active July.

[NDG]

Following this tropical wave another big push of the Saharan Dust is going to be pushing across the Caribbean, I am thinking that even some of this reach at least south FL.

[cycloneye]

Welcomed rains for some of the islands.

[lordkev]

We got a decent amount in St Kitts. Not a ton, but with how it's been lately, even a little helps.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's been hotter than usual here for late June. Let's see if that translates into an active July.

South Florida has had above-average June temperatures many times in recent years, yet nothing happened other than warmer-than-average Gulf SSTs. There really isn't any correlation between surface land temperatures and Atlantic activity.

[NDG]

It's been hotter than usual here for late June. Let's see if that translates into an active July.

South Florida has had above-average June temperatures many times in recent years, yet nothing happened other than warmer-than-average Gulf SSTs. There really isn't any correlation between surface land temperatures and Atlantic activity.

Except that this year the atmosphere over the GOM is different than the last few years, over all so far this year the shear has been running below average and most important instability has been much higher than the last few years.

[cycloneye]

Some minor damage in some areas of Puerto Rico due to tropical storm force gust of 48 mph clocked by the San Juan NWS.

NWS San Juan @NWSSanJuan · 5m5 minutes ago
View translation
Gust of 48 mph reported at SJU Airport at 205 pm. Ráfagas de 48 mph reportadas en el aeropuerto de San Juan. ‪#‎prwx

[gatorcane]

wow just goes to show you don't need a named system to do damage. This tropical wave is quite vigorous and continues to flare up with that ULL just off to the west. Upper-level divergence is looking quite good this afternoon as we see the cloud tops fanning nicely.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, low level moisture running into drier and cooler air aloft with some shear to help aid convection. Just what the Islands needed!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It's been hotter than usual here for late June. Let's see if that translates into an active July.

South Florida has had above-average June temperatures many times in recent years, yet nothing happened other than warmer-than-average Gulf SSTs. There really isn't any correlation between surface land temperatures and Atlantic activity.

Except that this year the atmosphere over the GOM is different than the last few years, over all so far this year the shear has been running below average and most important instability has been much higher than the last few years.

I'm not so sure about that. Shear across the gulf and caribbean has been pretty brutal overall except the times it drops for a few days at a time. In fact look for it to increase even more next week when our friend the east coast trough sets up. And like miamiwx said its always hot in June, we're flirting with upper 90's here in South LA and it doesn't lead to anything above normal in the gulf.