ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update of nino 3.4 at +1.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

This continues to be a traditional eastern based El Nino, wow!

[asd123]

When will the data outage be replaced? The bottom one has been appearing on some days, but the top one (upper right) has been out for a while now.

Image courtesy of NWS NOAA:

[cycloneye]

BoM update of 6/23/15 has El Nino consolidating but still they don't say how the peak will be.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

BoM update of 6/23/15 has El Nino consolidating but still they don't say how the peak will be.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Their model average for June continued to grow bigger. They have it at 2C by September and higher by November. The actual BOM (POAMA) prediction is around 1.6C for November's monthly average. Given we are already at 1.4C I'd say that's a little conservative.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I love the enthusiasm in this thread every day . El nino is right on schedule. My question is what are the analogs? I saw 1906 and 1973. Havent done my own research on it but when it comes to our winter here in Houston, i like the '73 analog.

[Ntxw]

I love the enthusiasm in this thread every day . El nino is right on schedule. My question is what are the analogs? I saw 1906 and 1973. Havent done my own research on it but when it comes to our winter here in Houston, i like the '73 analog.

It's a very good question, El Nino's as strong as this is predicted be, are rare and there isn't a lot to go by. The coming winter across the NH will definitely be dominated by the Nino as it has major influences in the cold season than it does the warm season as strong as it will be.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dec 1905- Mar 1906


Dec '72 - Mar '73


1906 looked to be a bit of a modiki Nino, maybe it was a good one for last year. Not sure. '73 looks almost about as close as we can get at the moment. Again ive only looked at a few years. The warm pool in the GOA and obviously the warm Pacific. It is missing the warm water off the Cali coast though.

[Ntxw]

1906 looked to be a bit of a modiki Nino, maybe it was a good one for last year. Not sure. '73 looks almost about as close as we can get at the moment. Again ive only looked at a few years. The warm pool in the GOA and obviously the warm Pacific. It is missing the warm water off the Cali coast though.

I believe the period (Larrywx) from late 1904-1906 was a very long multi-year El Nino 1905 being the apex of a strong. Similar to what 2014-2016 might be (I'm disregarding the new methodology for this purpose from the CPC). It was very wet and cold times for the southern US.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the next big WWB moving towards the dateline. It has MJO support, very much like in March and May. I think like those it will be stronger as we get closer than what guidance has





WPAC lid will go off again, probably a few typhoons and possibly a STY to accompany. As it moves eastward the CPAC and EPAC should gear up sometime early July.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

How does the MJO work with Typhoons again? In the location of the MJO is where Typhoons become favorable?

[Ntxw]

How does the MJO work with Typhoons again? In the location of the MJO is where Typhoons become favorable?

The MJO is associated with regions of upward motion and strong lift. Wherever it goes, if it is coherent, tends to boost cyclogenesis and strength of tropical systems. Phase 6/7 as predicted is wpac territory into the central Pacific, and are associated with westerly winds typically.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the next big WWB moving towards the dateline. It has MJO support, very much like in March and May. I think like those it will be stronger as we get closer than what guidance has

http://i62.tinypic.com/1427jia.png

http://i62.tinypic.com/33kvd46.gif

WPAC lid will go off again, probably a few typhoons and possibly a STY to accompany. As it moves eastward the CPAC and EPAC should gear up sometime early July.

This may be the nail in the coffin to have a strong El Nino by September?

[Ntxw]

Here comes the next big WWB moving towards the dateline. It has MJO support, very much like in March and May. I think like those it will be stronger as we get closer than what guidance has

http://i62.tinypic.com/1427jia.png

http://i62.tinypic.com/33kvd46.gif

WPAC lid will go off again, probably a few typhoons and possibly a STY to accompany. As it moves eastward the CPAC and EPAC should gear up sometime early July.

This may be the nail in the coffin to have a strong El Nino by September?

Yeah the readings are already moderate, no signs of weakening with next WWB strong Nino is almost a lock. They peak in fall and winter so the 1.4 now is not nearly peak.

[MississippiWx]

Another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave event needs to get going. Could this WWB do the trick, Ntwx?

[Ntxw]

Another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave event needs to get going. Could this WWB do the trick, Ntwx?

We've had 2 strong okw since March (roughly 45-60 days apart) each raising the bar, the May warming us to moderate weekly readings, this next okw will seal the deal as cycloneye says. The big difference from last year has been the supporting continuous WWBs

The question is will it be enough to get it over 2C and qualify as a super Nino?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thanks Ntx, not sure why i didnt put two and two together with all the rising air from an MJO event. Thanks again!

[euro6208]

GFS hinting of a 911mb typhoon during the next few days.

More WWB to further warm the nino...

[WALL-E]

Here comes the next big WWB moving towards the dateline. It has MJO support, very much like in March and May. I think like those it will be stronger as we get closer than what guidance has





WPAC lid will go off again, probably a few typhoons and possibly a STY to accompany. As it moves eastward the CPAC and EPAC should gear up sometime early July.

Could you please tell me the link where you get the WWB forecast from?

[Dean_175]

Could you please tell me the link where you get the WWB forecast from?

Can see it here on Mike Ventrice's page : http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html


Look for time longitude plot for 5N-5S of 850mb zonal wind (anomaly or totals).