2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

90W THREAD

[euro6208]

Huge increase in moisture as the MJO moves through last week of June early July...

[euro6208]

Although the MJO is slowly moving into our area with the core of it over SE Asia come last week of June and a robust KW moving through but is more southward bias, the GFS and EURO doesn't show any development for the rest of the month and near term.

Also, trade winds have been stronger than average especially over the past few days limiting disturbances from developing.

[euro6208]

Conditions are anticipated to become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the northwestern Pacific as the KW and the main MJO moves through...

[euro6208]

EURO hinting on the next TC...



CMC multiple...

[euro6208]

Models are in agreement that Chan-hom will develop from a very active monsoon trough that's forecast to become more active and lift north during the next few days...

JMA weaker



NAVGEM close to Luzon



GEM has 3 systems with the first impacting Okinawa, second a weaker system impacting Guam and another developing...




EURO has been on and off on developing strong systems now it only forecast Chan-hom and Linfa to be weak...

[euro6208]

Strengthening MJO into the WPAC




Ocean temps are insane. 29 to 30C in the primary breeding grounds with a strengthening nino...

[euro6208]

GFS develops both Chan-hom and Linfa right after the other making landfall close to Hong Kong and Guam...

[euro6208]

GFS starts development in just 100 hours, passes north of Yap as a TS, and slowly deepens to a peak of 965 mb in the Philippine Sea, recurves and weakens fast...

[euro6208]

94W THREAD

Thread for Pre Chan-Hom is up...

[euro6208]

NWS starting to mention this very active monsoon trough that could be active in both cyclogenesis and widespread convection...

DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS PALAU EASTWARD TO POHNPEI LIKELY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR MICRONESIA...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MONTH AND IN JULY IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HOWEVER THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER OR FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO
THE NEXT...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
THUS...WE WILL BE KEEPING A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE MODELS AND ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AT
MAJURO AS A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MAJURO
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATES THAT TROUGHING MAY
STICK AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WHICH WOULD
EXTEND ACTIVE WEATHER LATE INTO THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THE
DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD...WEAK CIRCULATION AND HEAD
TOWARDS KOSRAE STATE LATE THIS WEEK. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO KOSRAE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF POHNPEI THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG-TERM FORECAST IN GENERAL FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS ELUSIVE
DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD FROM DAY 3 ONWARD SO FINE TUNING FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS
HIGHEST WEST OF POHNPEI IN CHUUK STATE.

[euro6208]

Wow...

00Z GFS hinting of 2 more tropical cyclones including a dateline monster barreling uncomfortably close to the Northern Marianas...

[euro6208]

NAVGEM agrees on the dateline system...



CMC on 3 more!



EURO also likes GFS but further west...

[euro6208]

Very strong MJO moving through...Last time we had something similiar to this was back in May when we had 2 cat 5's roam the area back to back...This, is way stronger...

[euro6208]

Nav sk upgrade parallel TD/TS@72hrs 5N 150E low rider?

I'm getting concerned about the impact this will have on my hotel. We were suppose to have a grand opening on Jun 1 on a 5 star hotel but Dolphin totally delayed the opening (Earliest typhoon to ever hit Guam between the months of February to May on record). Now, this will delay it even more and the hotel is still in construction mode although restaurants and rooms are getting ready to open.

With an el nino this year, i fear the worst...

[cycloneye]

Looks like things will increase in activity soon in the basin.

[euro6208]

EURO with a near Typhoon Linfa about to strike the Northern Marianas...

[euro6208]

95W THREAD

Area southeast of Guam...

[euro6208]

That's one heck of a monsoon trough with a strong MJO moving through, GFS forecast has 4 more storms developing...

[euro6208]

EURO hinting Nangka...



GFS develops Nangka east of Okinawa...