WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 150625 0600 4.0N 158.4E WPAC 15 1010

EURO has Linfa headed for Guam.

[euro6208]

GFS also develops this but merges it with another developing system to the east of this active monsoon trough and barrels it towards the Northern Marianas...

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.0N 159.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED EIR
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LLCC. A
251024Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER (25 TO 30 KNOT) WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OMG 891 mb



Starts developing 48 hours from now as a TS



Develops into a full blown typhoon 3 days from now WTH?



Becomes a super typhoon 6 days from now over Marianas

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing a monstrous long tracker super typhoon maintaining strength all the way from Guam to Batanes, which would mean it would probably rack up to 70-80 units of ACE Showing also over 60-70 hours of cat 5 intensity










They have also been hinting this for about 2-3 days already, just wow

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EC showing a typhoon

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC. A 260359Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Starting to get that look

[euro6208]

Looking like 94W and 95W might merge into one dominant system...

A MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MICRONESIA WITH A
PAIR OF CIRCULATIONS FOUND ALONG THE TROUGH. INVEST AREA 94W IS
WELL SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 7N144E...AND INVEST AREA 95W IS SOUTH OF
KOSRAE NEAR 3N163E. MODELS SHOW EACH CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SLOWLY
IN THE COMING DAYS. CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF NEAR 94W WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS ABUNDANT NEAR 95W. SATELLITE AND ASCAT DATA
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
LINKING THE TWO CIRCULATIONS. STRONGEST WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
ARE SOUTH OF CHUUK AND KOSRAE AND WILL PROMOTE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATE TWO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS. WHILE GFS SHOWS
94W MERGING INTO 95W EAST OF THE MARIANAS AROUND MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ECMWF MAINTAINS TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS...PUSHING THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE SITUATION WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM swallows whatever becomes of 94W and becomes a huge typhoon barreling towards the Southern Marianas...



CMC peak after smashing the Marianas...



A very complex situation brewing according to EURO. It merges both systems after it crosses the Marianas and bringing plenty of rain with the track of 95W crossing Guam...

[euro6208]

WOW! This is looking like the hyper version of 1997. It smashes the Northern Islands at 925 mb, deepens to 883 mb, weakens slightly and strengthens to the lowest central pressure ever seen, 862 mb and krakening Taiwan. (Of course, there have been many typhoons as strong or even stronger but sadly no recon.)

[Yellow Evan]

862 MBAR??? Is this Pam all over again?

[WALL-E]

GFS says 869Hpa in the straight.

[wxman57]

Euro has 918mb storm that appears to be recurving east of the Philippines and China in 10 days.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM and GFS bend it west into the Philipines. Euro does seem to show a recurve though not certain since the run doesn't go out that far.

Wow this could be a big typhoon by the looks of these models. Here we go again for the WPAC.

GFS ensembles to show a bit of a divide in where they think it will go with a cluster recurving but still making landfall near Southern Japan.

[wxman57]

Last two points in the 12Z Euro (6Z and 12Z next Monday) have a NW motion (315 deg). The 500 mb pattern has an upper low to its NNW over eastern China/Korea, which would indicate a likely recurve. Possibly an eastern Japan impact or graze.

[cycloneye]

Last two points in the 12Z Euro (6Z and 12Z next Monday) have a NW motion (315 deg). The 500 mb pattern has an upper low to its NNW over eastern China/Korea, which would indicate a likely recurve. Possibly an eastern Japan impact or graze.

If that occurs Okinawa would be in the thick of things.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
615 AM CHST SUN JUN 27 2015

PMZ172-173-270200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
615 AM CHST SUN JUN 27 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN KOSRAE STATE...

AT 600 AM...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 3.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 163.8
DEGREES EAST. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY RAINFALL TO KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI STATES AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF MUDSLIDES ON KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES. AS A RESULT...WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT AND
FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL.

RESIDENTS IN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY AND LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY
OFFICES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 262042
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
640 AM CHST SAT JUN 27 2015

GUZ001>004-280200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
640 AM CHST SAT JUN 27 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY THREATEN THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEK...

AT 600 AM CHST THIS MORNING A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 3.9 DEGREES
NORTH AND 163.8 DEGREES EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...THEN TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. AS MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW STANDS...THE DISTURBANCE WOULD THREATEN THE MARIANAS AS
A TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SINCE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS STILL DEVELOPING...IT IS NOT YET
POSSIBLE TO GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS FUTURE TRACK OR WINDS
AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. STAY INFORMED ON ITS PROGRESS BY
FOLLOWING THE LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE
AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N
159.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CURVED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN OLDER 261002Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A VERY BROAD 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION
THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 20 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.