#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:30 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST
OF FANANU. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A
300002Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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