WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not a fan of it's asymmetrical structure.

[Yellow Evan]

This storm isn't getting the attention it deserves.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:39:15 N Lon : 156:38:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.5mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS AMSU: 970 hPa 84 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07060620
SSMIS: 975 hPa 97 knots Date: 07061749
CIRA AMSU: 963 hPa 86 knots Date: 07060621

SATCON: MSLP = 969 hPa MSW = 101 knots

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 12:40:51 N Lon : 156:26:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.2mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

I'd go 95.

[cycloneye]

WDPN33 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 652 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM EYE AND ROBUST OUTFLOW.
A 061806Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT IS SMALLER AND LESS RAGGED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10-20
KNOT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
EXTENSION OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TY NANGKA PEAKING
AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR
CREATING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN MOVING POLEWARD. ALTHOUGH NANGKA WILL HAVE GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, SSTS AND OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19 NORTH AND VWS
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL EFFECT OF
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE STR RESULTING IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 13:01:09 N Lon : 156:02:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.7mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +4.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This storm isn't getting the attention it deserves.

Because it's still very early morning in this region, most people people are still asleep

It doesn't really look impressive

[cycloneye]

This storm isn't getting the attention it deserves.

Maybe is because it will recurve away from the main populated areas.

[cycloneye]

Peak up to 130kts.



WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A 15 NM EYE AND ROBUST OUTFLOW.
A 062044Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SOLID EYEWALL WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 95
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10-20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
EXTENSION OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH NANGKA FORECASTED
TO PEAK AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR
CREATING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN MOVING POLEWARD. ALTHOUGH NANGKA WILL HAVE GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, SSTS AND OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19N AND VWS
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND OVERALL EFFECT
OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE STR IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. COMBINED WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU
72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN

[weathernerdguy]

Is it possible that this reaches cat 5?

[euro6208]

Getting it's act together...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 13:33:04 N Lon : 155:02:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : +7.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.7 degrees

[euro6208]

JMA brings this down to 944 mb...



CMC weaker



NAVGEM is more south passing just north of Saipan



EURO 917 mb

[Yellow Evan]

Is it possible that this reaches cat 5?

Yes.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go 110 right now factoring in the large size.

JTWC and JMA ADT is 6.5.

CIMSS ADT is 6.3.

SAB is 5.5 along with JTWC.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070244
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 155.0E

ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 730 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 635 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 485 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WILL BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.0 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON

[WALL-E]

When this matures no surprises here if it compares with vongfong.

Personally I don't think it is possible to surpass Vongfong, not even get close to its intensity.

Nangka is way to small in circulation, whereas Vongfong has a huge one.

And Vongfong was at lower latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

When this matures no surprises here if it compares with vongfong.

Personally I don't think it is possible to surpass Vongfong, not even get close to its intensity.

Nangka is way to small in circulation, whereas Vongfong has a huge one.

And Vongfong was at lower latitude.

What does that have to do with anything?

[euro6208]

This storm isn't getting the attention it deserves.

Because it's still very early morning in this region, most people people are still asleep

It doesn't really look impressive

Most people are focusing on Chan-hom as it is headed towards more land, more of a threat to a huge population...

[Yellow Evan]

This storm isn't getting the attention it deserves.

Because it's still very early morning in this region, most people people are still asleep

It doesn't really look impressive

Most people are focusing on Chan-hom as it is headed towards more land, more of a threat to a huge population...

But Nangka is stronger.

It's CDO is smoothing out and will make a run at 140 soon.

[euro6208]

When this matures no surprises here if it compares with vongfong.

Why only Vongfong?

Hagupit and Nuri also peaked at 155 knots...