WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 13:48:27 N Lon : 154:31:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[euro6208]

GFS unchanged with a track close to Pagan. Look at the structure of this 886 mb typhoon. Large circulation and wind field but very compact CDO. Strong typhoon for Tokyo?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks around 120 knts.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 070625

A. TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA)

B. 07/0532Z

C. 13.68N

D. 154.49E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 13:43:46 N Lon : 154:28:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

[euro6208]

Up to 110 knots Category 3!

11W NANGKA 150707 0600 13.6N 154.6E WPAC 110 941

[Yellow Evan]

It's probs around 125 knots now.

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 070918
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NANGKA)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 13.9N

D. 153.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE COLOR OF BLACK GIVING AN
EYE NUMBER OF 5.5 WITH A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE AND A WHITE RING YIELDING
AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0339Z 13.5N 154.7E AMSU


...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A MORE SYMMETRIC CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A 26-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 070339Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE EYEWALL
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5
TO T6.0 AND SUPPORTED BY A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 112 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION. TY NANGKA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING STR. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
WITH OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO
THE CYCLONE ATTAINING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 36, TY
NANGKA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE VWS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TILT THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR
CAUSING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
MOVING POLEWARD. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE INCREASED VWS AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, INCREASING THE WEAKENING RATE. IN ADDITION, SSTS
AND OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19N. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HWRF, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM THROUGH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BEYOND TAU
72. THIS TRACK IS CONSIDERED ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE DEPTH AND
ORIENTATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BASED ON THE
TIGHT MODEL GROUPING AND STABILITY OF CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[talkon]

TXPQ27 KNES 070918
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NANGKA)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 13.9N

D. 153.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE COLOR OF BLACK GIVING AN
EYE NUMBER OF 5.5 WITH A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE AND A WHITE RING YIELDING
AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0339Z 13.5N 154.7E AMSU


...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

The models are very consistent in slowing down Nangka considerably and that's when the fun wacko begins...It grows considerably while rapidly intensifying...

GFS projects a 884 mb typhoon then aims for Southern Japan...




EURO

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 070949
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 154.1E

ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 13.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES NANGKA TO THE NORTHERN CNMI ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 125 MPH...A STRONG CATEGORY 3
TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ83 PGUM 071116
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...INCLUDING AGRIHAN...
PAGAN...AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. PEOPLE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN CASE THE TYPHOON MAKES ANY UNEXPECTED
TRACK DEVIATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST.

ABOUT 605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 565 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 465 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

TYPHOON NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA TOWARD AGRIHAN...
PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING. NANGKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN SPEED. NANGKA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST IS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH... OR ANY UNEXPECTED EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WIND FORCES ON
THE TYPHOON'S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD PLACE THESE WINDS INTO THE
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER IF A TYPHOON WARNING IS ISSUED.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF NANGKA AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA AND HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AND COULD RANGE FROM AT LEAST 15 FEET TO MORE THAN 30 FEET BY
THURSDAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

...PEOPLE OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE PATH OF THE TYPHOON WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
AS MEASURED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THESE DAMAGING
WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY FURTHER THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM. HOWEVER...PLEASE KEEP ALERT TO ANY
CHANGES TO THIS SITUATION.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 14:23:06 N Lon : 153:30:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.5 degrees

[euro6208]

Haven't seen white in a long time in this latest TPW image...

[euro6208]

Decided to ask it here on this thread since it is coming from Nangka's side.

I see a spiral band trying to link up with Chan-hom. What is the classification of a fujiwhara?

[euro6208]

TYPHOON NANGKA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 155.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.07.2015 13.0N 155.2E INTENSE

12UTC 07.07.2015 14.1N 153.2E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.07.2015 15.3N 150.9E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2015 16.5N 148.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2015 17.6N 146.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2015 18.3N 144.2E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.07.2015 18.5N 142.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.07.2015 18.6N 140.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2015 18.5N 138.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2015 18.6N 137.3E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.07.2015 19.2N 136.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.07.2015 19.7N 136.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2015 20.3N 136.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[TheAustinMan]

Decided to ask it here on this thread since it is coming from Nangka's side.

I see a spiral band trying to link up with Chan-hom. What is the classification of a fujiwhara?

There is no "threshold" for identifying a Fujiwhara effect (I think) so long as the circulations of the tropical cyclones involved begin to orbit about a common center. I don't think linking rainbands are considered a part of the specific Fujiwhara interaction, which I believe purely has to do with the motion of the storms (though of course the interaction results in a number of other effects which may include some rainband interaction).

[cycloneye]

Peak at 140kts.



WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A CONTRACTING 20-
NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
071117Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEEP CONVECTIVE RING THAT IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
120 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST,
AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS SUPPORTING
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TY NANGKA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, AS THE TUTT CELL REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CYCLONE, LEADING TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 36, TY
NANGKA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS WHICH WILL BEGIN A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR CAUSING A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING
POLEWARD. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE INCREASED VWS (30+ KNOTS) AND REDUCED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING THE WEAKENING RATE. IN ADDITION, SSTS AND
OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19N. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HWRF AND EGRR, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, ABSENT
OF ANY INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TRACK IS
CONSIDERED ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING AND CONTINUED
STABILITY OF CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN