WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

55 knots?

I don't think so...That is a typhoon...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE LLCC. A DRY SLOT IS STILL APPARENT IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS A 080532Z NPP IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS DUE
TO A PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF 3.5 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
EXTENSION BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
12, TS LINFA WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS A WEAK STR BUILDING IN EASTERN
CHINA TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH GUANGDONG, EXPECT CONTINUED DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THERE IS
A CHANCE, HOWEVER, THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND DISSIPATE AT A LATER TIME AS THE VWS FROM THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES FORCE TS 10W BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY VARIED IN THE TC TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 080318
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LINFA)

B. 08/0232Z

C. 21.6N

D. 118.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 BASED ON 1.3 VIS BANDING. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/2229Z 21.2N 118.7E WINDSAT
07/2352Z 21.4N 118.7E SSMIS


...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

Fight Fight Fight!

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 22:09:04 N Lon : 118:33:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 969.7mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.9

Center Temp : -51.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.4 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should be 60-70 kts next warning

[jaguarjace]

10W LINFA 150708 1200 22.2N 118.4E WPAC 60 978

[wxman57]

Looks stronger than Chan-hom. Perhaps 75-80 kts now. May strike Hong Kong as a tropical storm as it skirts the coast at landfall.

[Alyono]

clear typhoon. Beyond a shadow of a doubt. Not sure what JMA and JT are seeing

[mrbagyo]

MW


ASCAT

[talkon]

Now forecast to go over Hong Kong.



WTPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.8N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.7N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.9N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.0N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 118.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

http://en.weather.com.cn/radar/

[euro6208]

Just upgraded to the 8th typhoon of the season!

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 13 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON CORRESPONDING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TYPHOON LINFA IS TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL STR EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
EXTENSION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
12, TY LINFA WILL TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA THROUGH HONG KONG. LAND INTERACTION AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

If you ask me, the storm is around 90 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA never upgraded Linfa

STS 1510 (LINFA)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 8 July 2015

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°30'(22.5°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E116°10'(116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E114°10'(114.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E112°55'(112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)
E111°40'(111.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[euro6208]

Linfa is stronger than 65 knots...I agree this seems closer to 100 knots now...

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 082116
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LINFA)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 22.7N

D. 117.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION IMPROVED WITH RAGGED OFF WHITE EYE
EMBEDDED IN MEDIUM GRAY AND RING OF LIGHT GRAY FOR A DT=4.5. MET=4.0
BUT PAT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 22:47:16 N Lon : 117:02:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 952.6mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 4.7 4.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -22.2C Cloud Region Temp : -57.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.1 degrees

[euro6208]

Eye coming into view in the Hong Kong radar...