2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Wow,a major cane shown by 12z ECMWF but is 10 days out.

http://i.imgur.com/VSMjfiC.png

WOAH!!! You don't see the Euro showing something that BIG everyday!

Happens sometimes in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this
system is possible this weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro still has it. Also has another basin crosser.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this
system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

ECMWF continues to show a cat 5 off Mexican coast.

[Ntxw]

I am very impressed. When the euro has something that consistent and large scale it usually means something big (i.e. Marie 2014). Looks like we'll be following an epac monster cat4/5 pretty soon. Conditions are becoming favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF continues to show a cat 5 off Mexican coast.

http://i.imgur.com/m1ZgEEW.png

We're on Cat 5 watch.

Watch this upwell and sit there somehow.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible by this weekend while the
low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro doesn't seem to move it much.

Also the Euro has Iselle part 2. Almost identical genesis time frames.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan. Which model you give more credence,GFS or ECMWF in terms of track? GFS more closer to land or ECMWF away?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur over the
next couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible
through this weekend and into early next week while the low moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan. Which model you give more credence,GFS or ECMWF in terms of track? GFS more closer to land or ECMWF away?

ECMWF probs.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is expected this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur over the
next couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through this weekend and into early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

901 mbar at the 12z GFS.

Cat 5 anyone?

[cycloneye]

EC is on the same boat on intensity as GFS.Will be fun to track.

[CrazyC83]

901 mbar at the 12z GFS.

Cat 5 anyone?

When models are showing monsters in mid-July...only God knows what we might see in late August or September.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF possibly hinting that this will be our first long range basin crosser.

[Yellow Evan]

901 mbar at the 12z GFS.

Cat 5 anyone?

When models are showing monsters in mid-July...only God knows what we might see in late August or September.

EPAC spawns plenty of monsters in July FTR.

[Kingarabian]

Have models ever shown anything below 900mb on record? Or are they not capable?