WPAC: HALOLA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

91C INVEST 150707 1200 7.6N 166.4W CPAC 25 1007

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii increased in coverage, and have become slightly better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north or northeast over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

If you ask me, this is a TD.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP912015 07/07/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 53 61 66 73 77 77 75
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 53 61 66 73 77 77 75
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 52 59 68 77 86 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 17 16 9 8 6 7 6 2 3 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3
SHEAR DIR 96 77 75 87 94 104 55 29 46 59 75 349 269
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 149 147 146 145 144 145 146 145 145
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 67 64 62 60 61 63 62 64 63 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 90 107 119 125 123 124 124 137 137 132 121 101 93
200 MB DIV 82 41 33 43 51 48 36 36 36 16 14 33 35
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2
LAND (KM) 1709 1697 1687 1670 1650 1619 1627 1654 1710 1761 1826 1916 2015
LAT (DEG N) 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.4 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 166.4 166.7 167.0 167.4 167.7 168.3 169.0 169.8 170.7 171.7 173.1 174.8 176.5
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 36 34 33 32 32 32 37 44 50 42 37 54 55

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 15. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 36. 41. 48. 52. 52. 50.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/07/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north or northwest over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

[znel52]

If you ask me, this is a TD.

Yeah I agree. Have seen a lot worse looking TD's than that.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continue to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development of this system as it moves slowly toward the northwest over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

3. Scattered thunderstorms persist around an area of low pressure located about 975 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development as it moves slowly toward the west northwest over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PHNC 081730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 164.8W TO 13.2N 168.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 165.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 165.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE WEST. A 081414Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WARM
SSTS IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091730Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS goes bonso with this classic westward moving typhoon till it starts to recurve around 158E and hits the Northern Marianas. After that, it's anyone's guess where this goes...

Another huge ACE driver for the WPAC...

06Z




12Z

[Yellow Evan]

3. Thunderstorms have recently increased around an area of low pressure located about 950 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. These thunderstorms are located mainly west of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development as it moves slowly toward the west northwest over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.

[euro6208]

NWS

MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
...CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...HEADING WEST ACROSS THE
DATE LINE BETWEEN 10N AND 20N LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND ON A TRACK THAT BRINGS IT EAST OF
THE MARIANAS LATE NEXT WEEK.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Westward track to the Marianas although i see some sort of of south of west motion in the last few frames...This is gonna be interesting...

[euro6208]

What a drift south

[euro6208]

And another lucky turn away from the Southern Marianas...

[euro6208]

EURO isn't happy with this...

It's just a weak disturbance or TD before recurving...

[Yellow Evan]

3. Showers and thunderstorms located about 950 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii or about 360 miles south of Johnston island are associated with a persistent area of low pressure. The center of this area has been partially exposed through much of the day, though thunderstorms continue to pulse with little signs of additional organization. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for gradual development into a tropical depression as the feature moves slowly toward the west-northwest over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

3. Showers and thunderstorms located about 1050 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii or about 390 miles south of Johnston island are associated with a persistent area of low pressure. The system continues to become organized and environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development into tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP912015 07/10/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 54 54 54 54 57
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 54 54 54 54 57
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 36 40 42 43 44 45 46 45 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 7 8 8 13 16 13 19 21 23 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -6 -7 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 5 0 1
SHEAR DIR 117 110 209 219 217 250 261 261 223 229 205 238 226
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 145 146 146 147 146 145 146 146 145
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 61 60 63 59 60 63 63 64 62 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 17 18 17 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 110 111 110 109 107 105 82 75 75 63 55 42 31
200 MB DIV 12 22 21 32 35 9 35 28 79 85 64 19 18
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -1 2 5 6 8
LAND (KM) 1623 1668 1714 1754 1797 1914 2058 2250 4090 3933 3762 3513 3283
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.5 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 170.3 171.0 171.6 172.3 173.1 175.0 177.2 179.7 182.4 184.9 187.2 189.5 191.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 14 12 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 40 40 39 37 37 55 56 52 57 58 55 61 53

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 27.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[jaguarjace]

01C ONE 150710 0600 11.4N 170.3W CPAC 30 1006