WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Updated 3 hour position

[euro6208]

Our storm2k friend and local typhoon chaser TyphoonHunter will be chasing this monster typhoon...

http://i.imgur.com/zu4GWH6.png

Is he planning on heading down to Taipei? He may not see much in Okinawa. JTWC's track is right of the model guidance. Both the Euro & GFS take the center not far north of Taipei on Friday.

I don't think so...

He switched location and he is now in Miyako Jima...Crazy guy...

Huge waves...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2tbWAEdAws&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Start of RI

09W CHAN-HOM 150709 1200 24.2N 127.6E WPAC 100 948

[euro6208]

Aiming for Miyako and also notice that intense comvection right over Okinawa spreading eastwards...

59 mph sustained gusting to 70 mph in Okinawa now...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 24:16:08 N Lon : 127:31:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 936.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 180km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.5 degrees

[euro6208]

Chan-hom and Nangka in July 2015 in this developing strong nino year vs Ivan and Joan in the Super nino year of 1997 in October...

Chan-hom and Nangka is weaker but still impressive and eerily similiar...

[euro6208]

This is like the doomday scenario...

Shanghai is more populated than New York City, metro is +33 million and the most populated city proper in the world facing a potentially huge tidal surge similiar to what Sandy did but this is stronger...

Let's hope the Yangtze River can hold

[Yellow Evan]

Now Chan-hom is making a run at Cat 5...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 24:32:52 N Lon : 127:12:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 930.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +11.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 180km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.9 degrees

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Latest update is very scrambled...

[Yellow Evan]

In order for a T7.0 to happen, the W convection needs to get thicker.

I'm not saying it's a Cat 5 yet, probs around 120-125 knts.

[euro6208]

For such an intense typhoon, it's CDO is quite small...

[euro6208]

Miyako just recorded a gust of 85 mph and 980 mb about an hour ago...station not updating...

[euro6208]

Talk about ravage...

Kadena AFB has already seen sustained tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph for eight hours, with sustained peak winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, at 11:57 pm Thursday local time. Expected 18 more hour expected for sustained TS force winds...

[euro6208]

Miyako pressure down to 978 mb...

[euro6208]

It's passing to the north of Miyako,,,


Okinawa pressure is 982mb and winds are sustained at 48 mph gusting to 68 mph...

Miyako is reporting 973 mb and winds of 71 mph gusting to 85 mph!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VIGOROUS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TY
09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE
SHORT TERM. AFTERWARD, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
START THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36, TY 09W WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS OVER EASTERN CHINA. CONCURRENTLY, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING THE STR AND
ALLOWING TY 09W TO TURN POLEWARD. BY TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD.
C. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
TAKING THE TYPHOON FURTHER INLAND, MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT EMERGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
YELLOW SEA. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Chan hom absolutely is a large typhoon . That will push a massive tidal surge into the bay around Wenzhou and Shanghai.

[ejeraldmc]

Chan hom absolutely is a large typhoon . That will push a massive tidal surge into the bay around Wenzhou and Shanghai.

Let's hope those places are more ready than Tacloban was.