2015 Global model runs discussion

[Stormcenter]

Way too early to start writing off this season. You still have all of July left and the meat and potatoes of the season August and September. IMO

[ninel conde]

Way too early to start writing off this season. You still have all of July left and the meat and potatoes of the season August and September. IMO

In seasons like this aug/sept feature the most horrid of conditions. And yes, i am well aware we had 2 storms so far. weak early storms are a hallmark of a strong el nino dead season.

[CourierPR]

I recall that Hurricane Andrew formed during an El Nino year in 1992. It only takes one storm hitting your particular location to make the season a bad one. Several days ago on WPLG TV in Miami, former National Hurricane Center Director, Max Mayfield, spoke about the current El Nino and cautioned that we will likely see storms in August and September.

[CrazyC83]

Way too early to start writing off this season. You still have all of July left and the meat and potatoes of the season August and September. IMO

In seasons like this aug/sept feature the most horrid of conditions. And yes, i am well aware we had 2 storms so far. weak early storms are a hallmark of a strong el nino dead season.

I wouldn't think the peak of this season would be much of one, since most of the systems will likely be of non-tropical origin (think Arthur, Fay and Hanna from last year for analogs) and those don't respect peaks of seasons as much as storms forming from tropical waves do, and I don't expect much of anything in the low latitudes from waves. Heck, November might be more active than August this year.

I wonder what got Erika in 1997 going and how it managed to strengthen to Cat 3 (or maybe Cat 4? I'd argue the dropsonde calls for 115 kt for an intensity)? Found a sweet spot in a nasty Atlantic?

[boca]

I think the only thing we will be tracking are upper level lows in the Atlantic.

Yep. And dust, and shear.

You both do realize that we have already had two systems this year correct? And that even 1997 featured three hurricanes with one being a major hurricane. Lets see what August, September and October bring before we start with the season cancel nonsense. If we have not had anymore systems by the end of October then I agree the season will be a dud. But until then lets sit back and see what happens.

I never claimed the season was cancelled but lets face it, I like tracking storms and its very slow out there and lets leave it at that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's July. Some of the busiest seasons were dead in July. Look at the Bell Curve. Doesn't start ramping up till August.

https://www.google.com/search?q=bell+cu ... KbbGYfg%3D

[gatorcane]

Yep and if you look back at some of the biggest Florida hurricanes to hit the state, often times there is little to nothing until August or in some cases until September. Examples include 1926, 1928, 1935, 1941, 1947, 1949, 1965, 1992, and 2004. 1941 was an El Niño year and it took until Sept 11 to get the first named system. 2004 was also an el niño year.

The GFS model is showing some impressive waves to move off Africa the next couple of weeks. If anything these waves should help moisten the MDR.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I recall that Hurricane Andrew formed during an El Nino year in 1992. It only takes one storm hitting your particular location to make the season a bad one. Several days ago on WPLG TV in Miami, former National Hurricane Center Director, Max Mayfield, spoke about the current El Nino and cautioned that we will likely see storms in August and September.

The Oceanic Niño Index for this timeframe centered for August was just 0.2C, and the weeklies were already negative. 1992 overall is also not an El Niño year.

[hurricanehunter69]

Way too early to start writing off this season. You still have all of July left and the meat and potatoes of the season August and September. IMO

In seasons like this aug/sept feature the most horrid of conditions. And yes, i am well aware we had 2 storms so far. weak early storms are a hallmark of a strong el nino dead season.

Conditions for tropical development will be much better in Aug/Sept than they are right now and in June!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I recall that Hurricane Andrew formed during an El Nino year in 1992. It only takes one storm hitting your particular location to make the season a bad one. Several days ago on WPLG TV in Miami, former National Hurricane Center Director, Max Mayfield, spoke about the current El Nino and cautioned that we will likely see storms in August and September.

The Oceanic Niño Index for this timeframe centered for August was just 0.2C, and the weeklies were already negative. 1992 overall is also not an El Niño year.

92 was an el nino year. Check the chart:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[Yellow Evan]

I recall that Hurricane Andrew formed during an El Nino year in 1992. It only takes one storm hitting your particular location to make the season a bad one. Several days ago on WPLG TV in Miami, former National Hurricane Center Director, Max Mayfield, spoke about the current El Nino and cautioned that we will likely see storms in August and September.

The Oceanic Niño Index for this timeframe centered for August was just 0.2C, and the weeklies were already negative. 1992 overall is also not an El Niño year.

92 was an el nino year. Check the chart:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

If it is, is 1998 or 2010 an El Nino year?

There was no El Nino during the peak of the ATL season. EPAC you could make a guess since that peaks sooner.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Conditions for tropical development will be much better in Aug/Sept than they are right now and in June!

Just as people are being criticized for saying there is no way to know that conditions will be as bad or worse in august and September, there is no way that anybody knows that conditions will be better in that same time frame

[tolakram]

Let's get back to model runs, we have a few threads now where this is going on.

[WPBWeather]

Let's get back to model runs, we have a few threads now where this is going on.

YES!!!!

[emeraldislenc]

any model support for anything in the Atlantic in the next few weeks?

[Alyono]

MU has a CALIFORNIA landfall in about 11 days. System is moving about 40 kts in the model

[Hammy]

any model support for anything in the Atlantic in the next few weeks?

GFS (of course) has been intermittently hinting at development in the Gulf in the latter half of the month, and super-long range CFS has a few systems in the open western Atlantic in August

[Nimbus]

The SAL has been on the wain in the eastern Atlantic as the moisture over African continent has been increasing.
I'm not sure which specific model captures the probabilistic change associated with this phenomena.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

Looks like a typical late July morph to me, anyone else think it looks a little early??

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I recall that Hurricane Andrew formed during an El Nino year in 1992. It only takes one storm hitting your particular location to make the season a bad one. Several days ago on WPLG TV in Miami, former National Hurricane Center Director, Max Mayfield, spoke about the current El Nino and cautioned that we will likely see storms in August and September.

The Oceanic Niño Index for this timeframe centered for August was just 0.2C, and the weeklies were already negative. 1992 overall is also not an El Niño year.

92 was an el nino year. Check the chart:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

So if it is, is 2010 one? No it's not.

1992 was a fading El Niño year FYI
1991 was the El Niño year, not 1992

Monthly SST for the month was -0.1C and is far from Niño

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yes it was fading as you can see in the chart but the weather pattern will still acting El Nino. Even Hawaii got hit that year.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm