WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 091223

A. TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA)

B. 09/1132Z

C. 17.98N

D. 144.55E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 8NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. PT YIELDS A 6.0. MET YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0912Z 17.87N 145.12E SSMS


UEHARA

[euro6208]

Borderline Category 5!

11W NANGKA 150709 1200 18.0N 144.6E WPAC 135 922

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 17:58:45 N Lon : 144:20:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 935.3mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 136km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.1 degrees

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

eye temp up to +16.3

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops have warmed quite a bit though.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPACT DEEP
CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A DISTINCT 11-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NANGKA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS AND
GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. STY NANGKA IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36 UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND. NEAR TAU 36, STY NANGKA WILL SLOW AND
BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR CAUSED BY
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. VWS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS WEST, FORCING
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 11W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN AS
A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THE STEERING STR ALLOWING IT TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE SYSTEM. HIGH VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE CYCLONE, REDUCING THE VWS IMPACTS AND
ALLOWING STY 11W TO RE-INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER 72
HOURS BECAUSE OF THEIR DEPICTION OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

PINHOLE?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Possible EWRC or some intensity fluctuations, but may later bomb out to a cat 5

11W NANGKA 150710 1200 18.4N 141.2E WPAC 115 937

[euro6208]

JMA 960 mb typhoon east of Okinawa

NAVGEM takes this to Southern Japan 959 mb

CMC takes a 960's mb storm to Okinawa and the Northern Ryukyu Islands...

EURO 916 mb east of Okinawa, 919 mb for the Northern Ryukyu Islands

[euro6208]

Possible EWRC or some intensity fluctuations, but may later bomb out to a cat 5

11W NANGKA 150710 1200 18.4N 141.2E WPAC 115 937

Indeed...

All models and GFS indicate some renewed strengthening as it nears Japan...It takes a 901 mb typhoon near Okinawa and right up to Southern Japan...This storm will have a long live ahead...

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM WEST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITH
AN EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE AND SIGNIFICANT SUBSTANCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE, FLATTENING OUT THE SYSTEM. A 110711Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTION AMASSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE DECAY IN OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH (20-40
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STR ANCHORED SOUTH OF
SHIKOKU.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE STR REMAINS TO THE NORTH. SOME FURTHER DECAY CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, EXPECT THE STR TO BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING TY NANGKA TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE POLEWARD. EXPECT SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH AS THE VWS WILL
SUBSIDE AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
STR. BY TAU 72, EXPECT TY 11W TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
STR BUILDS IN OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN SOUTHERN
JAPAN. EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS 11W INTERACTS
WITH THE KUROSHIO AND HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF TRACKING TO
THE WEST IN THE EARLY TAUS AND VARYING TRACKS WITH REGARD TO EXTEND
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

It hasn't moved much over the past 24 hours maybe some upwelling going on thus the weakening but models are in agreement that steady to even rapid intensification will happen once it starts moving to the northwest...

EURO showing significant strengthening bottoms out at 903 mb in 72 hours then showing a very intense STY headed to Japan...




WPAC you crazy...

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE WHICH IS
FLATTENING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN THE 120540Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON OVERALL
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HIGH NORTHERLY VWS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE ABOVE TY 11W.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE STR REMAINS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE STR RETREATS
TO THE EAST SLOWLY, TY NANGKA WILL HAVE A QUASI-STATIONARY
APPEARANCE. AS THE STR FINALLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST, EXPECT A
POLEWARD TRACK OF TY 11W, WITH A SLIGHT EASTERN COMPONENT UNTIL TAU
36. BEYOND THAT, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST, FORCING TY
11W TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 72 AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE
VWS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE SYSTEM FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS WILL SLACKEN
SLIGHTLY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR, ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND TRACKING
NORTHWEST INTO SHIKOKU BY TAU 120. THE INCREASING VWS, IN ADDITION
TO LAND INTERACTION, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN OVERALL DIRECTION, SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURNS OF TY NANGKA (CAUSED BY
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE STR WILL RETRACT AND RE-BUILD) CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A WIDE SPREAD OF THE SYSTEMS TRACK. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 18:46:29 N Lon : 137:32:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -43.3C Cloud Region Temp : -51.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 135km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.6 degrees

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

http://i.imgur.com/sXvDmNF.gif

WDPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CLEAR 9 NM EYE AND OVERALL GOOD SYMMETRY
IN THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF THE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
A TIME STEP THROUGH THE LAST 12 HOURS OF AVAILABLE GOOD MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SEEMED TO HAVE COMPLETED AN ERC.
THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VWS. THE
CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AS THE STEERING STR BACKS
TO THE EAST AND REFORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. AS SUCH,
TY 11W WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY THOUGH TAU 72,
DEFLECTING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STR BUILDS.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, ALLOWING TY
NANGKA TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 125
KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR EASTERN KYUSHU NEAR TAU 84. EXPECT INCREASING VWS, IN
ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION, TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED, WITH A
NEAR TRIFURCATION OF MODELS. THE GFS MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE
EASTERN TRACK WHILE NAVY MODELS TRACK INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
FOREIGN MODELS TRACKS BETWEEN EASTERN KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU. AS THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK PAST TAU 48, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Double eyewall

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS still brings this down sub 900 mb and has a nasty strike for Japan...