ATL: CLAUDETTE - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

AL, 92, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 362N, 783W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 92, 2015071106, , BEST, 0, 359N, 776W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 92, 2015071112, , BEST, 0, 357N, 770W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 92, 2015071118, , BEST, 0, 356N, 762W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 92, 2015071200, , BEST, 0, 356N, 753W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752015 to al922015,




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has moved off of the east coast
of the United States and is located about 70 miles east of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. Although showers and thunderstorms have
become concentrated near the center of the low, environmental
conditions are expected to only be marginally conducive for
development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next
day or so while the low moves eastward and then northeastward away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

Live IR
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=35&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[Hammy]

Ironically about the time they finally mention it in the outlook the convection begins weakening. NAM model has handled the development of a low pressure here fairly well other than being a few hours slow in the timing (and did surprisingly well with Ana and Bill as well) so I think there's closer to 40-50% chance of development, given that it has about 36 hours over warm enough waters.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 115 miles east of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to only be
marginally conducive for the development of a subtropical or
tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low accelerates
northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track and model package.

92L INVEST 150712 1200 35.1N 73.8W ATL 20 1012

[NDG]

This little system only has 24-36 hrs at the most to do something before it moves over much cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure system located about 150 miles
east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
expected to only be marginally conducive for the development of a
subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the
low accelerates northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Hammy]

Euro's latest run keeps the system closed the whole way through it's journey to Canada, which is a change from the previous runs, and seems to keep it tropical the whole time as well. Based on latest runs if it develops it'll probably be tomorrow afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php ... tic-coast/

Blog post I wrote on the system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical area of low pressure continues to produce
disorganized showers about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina. Environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly unfavorable, and significant development of the low is
not expected while it accelerates northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Hammy]

This seems close to being a depression, the reasoning of 10% doesn't really make much sense to me.

[LarryWx]

^Isn't the low currently nontropical?

[Hammy]

^Isn't the low currently nontropical?

Hence why I said close to. The models continue to show intensification as a tropical system as well.

[Hammy]

Ascat pass earlier was @20knts with a well defined center of circulation , looks to me on satpic its likely this is already a latent heat entity.

One pass not too long after shows one barb up to 30kts.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds86.png

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[SouthDadeFish]

Actually looks pretty good this morning:



If convection persists, this is a STC/TC imo.

Nice curved band of convection:

[tolakram]

This seems close to being a depression, the reasoning of 10% doesn't really make much sense to me.

We'll have to look for any changes made when the season is reviewed, I suspect you were right about depression status, and today it seems well on it's way. IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=38&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[cycloneye]

JB agrees is a TD or TS.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 4m4 minutes ago  State College, PA
Banded features and Nice looking convection indicate this may be depression or storm strength now.Moot pt, moving out

[crownweather]

IMO and sort of off topic - I think we may see other areas of interest near frontal boundaries/convective clusters moving offshore of the US East Coast/Gulf Coast next 1-2 weeks. Euro and GFS model have been dropping hints of this on and off last several runs & I think they may be on to something.

[wxman57]

Probably a TS now. It's under 65-70 kts of SW shear so it's probably at its peak this morning. Models indicate weakening as it moves off to the NE under the strong shear.