Florida Weather

[psyclone]

I'm not worrying about anything tropical until there's something on the map pointed my direction. I've seen plenty of cases where exceptionally warm near shore waters were moderated by thunderstorm activity once the atmosphere became hospitable to convection...it's amazing how quickly a few rainy/cloudy days can cool the sea surface...hopefully we get that at some point...my neighborhood has missed the good rains recently..

[NDG]

As easy as 1,2,3 when the winds switch from the S & SW, SE FL gets its rains.

Saved radar shot:

[TheStormExpert]

Still after a quick and decent 30min downpour around noon the sun is fully out and there are few clouds in the sky! Most of the rains now are over the FL Straits and the Gulf Stream between Florida and the Bahamas.

Didn't even pick up a 1/2 inch of rain! Though places just a mile or so south of me picked up at least 1/2 inch of rain.

[gatorcane]

When it rains it pours. Strong storms and plentiful convection blowing up across South Florida at this hour, especially Palm Beach County! Extremely heavy rain falling! Finally! Some areas are likely flooding it is raining so hard here. Funnel clouds possible, see below



Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
533 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-292200-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
533 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

* AT 533 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PALM BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45
TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A
COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE
WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...WEST PALM BEACH...POMPANO
BEACH...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY
BEACH...TAMARAC...WELLINGTON...MARGATE...LAKE WORTH...RIVIERA
BEACH...LIGHTHOUSE POINT...PALM BEACH...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...
HIGHLAND BEACH...OCEAN RIDGE...COCONUT CREEK AND OAKLAND PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2662 8004 2670 8005 2669 8005 2658 8004
2655 8004 2619 8010 2623 8029 2677 8015
2678 8003 2676 8005 2671 8005 2676 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 274DEG 27KT 2669 8001 2629 8012

$$

SI

[AdamFirst]

I was leaving work at 3 PM in Fort Pierce, the outflow boundary from the approaching storm was so strong it kicked up all the dust and dirt that had collected in the parking lot and sent it flying, it was crazy. Big rains came about 10 minutes after that.

[Taffy]

I agree. We need a low key tropical system to come across and stay for a few days. Southwest Florida is in need of rain and heat reduction. This year so far the weather just isn't right.

[Hurricaneman]

We've had some pretty potent T-Storms the last few days here and a severe one yesterday and yesterday the rain falling was insane as you couldn't see more than 100 yards

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[gatorcane]

This east wind pattern is relentless and the pattern looks to continue for te next week at least. Also there is a fair amount of Saharan Dust moving across Southern Florida. I was flying across the Bahamas today and it was even thicker out there. We are inching closer to the "real" hurricane season for us which is from Aug-October. Will this pattern be around for long durations during these peak months? If so we will need to keep our eyes to the east.

[SouthFloridian92]

We had ourselves quite a thunderstorm last night. It was pretty intense.

[HURRICANELONNY]

We had ourselves quite a thunderstorm last night. It was pretty intense.

I read an article awhile back that SAL can limit thunderstorm activity but can make storms more severe for the ones that do form. Like where the sea breeze collides from east/west in florida. It's been a hell of a SAL year so far.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe just maybe will get some decent rain on the east coast of S.FL next week. 7/13-on


hances for showers and thunderstorms will increase again for the
first part of next week. Persistent upper ridging and its influence
on the weather for South Florida finally pushes well to the west and
sets up across the Southern Plains. This allows a broad 500 mb trough to
slide into the Ohio Valley. The trough axis is expected to extend
well to the south and into the Florida Peninsula. Because of this
and the departure of upper ridging...flow across South Florida is
expected to turn more southwesterly. With this new flow pattern
along with deeper moisture in place...the East Coast metropolitan areas may
be the more favored area for convective development heading into
the middle of next week.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get serious in far SE Florida. Miami is some 11 inches below normal to date.



Hopefully summer's benign weather pattern will shift with the El Nino come fall and winter and erase it.

[TheStormExpert]

Not looking as certain as yesterday that the steering flow will shift to a Southwesterly component.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THIS SAME TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLE
A CHANGE. MAYBE? THE GFS IS SHOWING A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPENING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SET UP, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DOES NOT THE
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEEPS THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
NEXT WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. I read that this morning. Didn't even want to post it. Thought it would hex the chance of rain here. I'm in the extreme drought according to that map. Brown grass all over. The rains will come. I just hope not too many buckets at once. El Nino tends to make it wetter then normal by winter. Will see..........

On a positive note. The NAO going and staying neg. could help deepen the east coast trof.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[Taffy]

Will there really be an El Nino this Fall and Winter?

[JonathanBelles]

Water temp officially >=90F at Clearwater and St. Pete beaches.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet, not quite as bullish on rainfall and comments on this never ending east wind pattern.

NOT ONLY HAS OUR WIND FLOW PATTERN NOT HELPED WITH PRODUCING RAIN
FOR THE EAST COAST THIS RAINY SEASON...MOISTURE TOO HAS BEEN
LACKING (PWATS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL). OUR WIND FLOW PATTERN IS
SWITCHING THIS WEEK, BUT MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THAT IS ONE FACTOR WHICH COULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS. NEVER DO WE SEEM TO GET INTO A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE
WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REALLY ADD UP OVER TIME OVER A LARGE
AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS
WEEK...CONTINUING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID JULY.
AND SO THE EXPECTATION THIS WEEK IS FOR SCATTERED TSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY, FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL. OVERALL
QPF FROM WPC IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, 0.5-1.0" ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEK (AREAL AVERAGE). HOWEVER, SOME LOCALES COULD RECEIVE A GOOD
2-4" OF RAIN WHERE STRONGER CELLS OCCUR THIS WEEK. IT`LL BE BETTER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR WEEKS ON END...BUT SURELY NO DROUGHT
ENDER. /GREGORIA

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[JonathanBelles]

Radar loop of this morning's lightning storms:

https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/stat ... 1067860993

[northjaxpro]

Another day of 95 degree + heat in store for the region today. Yesterday it reached 99 degrees at my locale, the hottest reading yet this summer season. It will get close to that again today. Still have yet to crack the century mark. Did get a thunderstorm yesterday to give just under an inch of rain at my locale. Good to get the typical summer storms, but still below normal rainfaill-wise in Northeast Florida. Still about 4- 5 inches below where we should be at this point of the year right now.

[Patrick99]

Well, ECSB pushed through and didn't fire much up...and whatever has formed seems to be moving WSW away from the areas that need rain the most.

What are the odds of some of this stuff building back across the metro areas? Probably not great, I'm guessing. Another bust.