ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURRICANELONNY]

They say possibly the strongest in 50 years. I thought 97 was the strongest

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/07/13/e ... 3785659853

[Dean_175]

They say possibly the strongest in 50 years. I thought 97 was the strongest

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/07/13/e ... 3785659853

Article says it could possibly be one of the strongest, not the strongest. Really the article is just saying that this should be a strong El Nino- not necessarily a near record strong event. The strongest 3 El Ninos in past 50 years have been 1972-73 ,1982-83,and 1997-1998.

[Ntxw]

Some updated indices relating to the Nino, all pointing

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.05

Average for last 30 days: -18.54
Average for last 90 days: -10.72
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: -28.32

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, if the El Nino strengthens to unprecedented levels, what are the chances it continues until next summer?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if the El Nino strengthens to unprecedented levels, what are the chances it continues until next summer?

The modern times super El Nino's all became La Nina the next year, I'd hedge an early guess on that. Its some kind of balance the earth must keep I guess? Don't quote me on that. We'll have a better idea in early 2016 after this event peaks. Ninas tends to come on much quicker than Ninos.

[Dean_175]

Ntxw, if the El Nino strengthens to unprecedented levels, what are the chances it continues until next summer?

Its still possible that a strong El Nino would persist to the start of meteorological summer June 1- but not much longer after that. The 1982 El Nino was still around June of the next year. 1997 on the other hand, decayed rapidly before June.

El Nino events tend to decay late winter and revert to neutral or La Nina by summer. El Nino events grow by positive feedback processes where the wind stress over the ocean adjust to SST anomalies, but negative feedback processes are also occurring. The wind stress curl produces Sverdrup transport of water away from the equator (lowering SSH and the mean thermocline depth) and generates ocean Rossby waves. Rossby waves travel to the west Pacific boundary and reflect as an upwelling KW response several months later.

During winter, the maximum "total SSTs" in the central Pacific move south of the equator as part of the natural seasonal cycle. The anomalous deep convection during El Nino follows this shift of SSTs, causing the westerly wind stress anomalies to also move south of the equator. This cuts off the equatorial wind stress anomalies - and the anomalous tilt of the thermocline starts to diminish. With the positive feedbacks diminished, the negative feedbacks can dominate and terminate the El Nino.

Strong El Nino events actually have an extra push towards La Nina: during strong events - warm total SSTs actually penetrate into the east Pacific- allowing deep convection and westerly wind anomalies to occur there. In May, when total SSTs seasonally start to diminish there, the water becomes too cool to support deep convection and strong easterlies abruptly return. Strong Ninos are almost invariably followed by La Nina- which typically has started to develop during summer.

[cycloneye]

The July ECMWF forecast is very bullish to have a very strong El Nino.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 23h23 hours ago
The July ECMWF fcst agrees with the CFS in showing a good chance for the strongest modern #ElNino on record #climate

[Ntxw]

100% of the guidance is strong and eyeballing 60-80% get to 2C.

The Nino has seen some record indirect indicies to help it. Some of the strongest westerly anomalies comparable to 1982, 1997 the past 3 months. North Pacific record ACE (WPAC+EPAC) and obscene record shear in the Caribbean <- 2015 holds the top days and consecutive days of high shear even more than 1997.

30 day SOI is nearing -20

Average for last 30 days -19.61
Average for last 90 days -10.93
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -31.46

[cycloneye]

We have arrived to a new dimension for this El Nino and the effects down the road on different aspects like droughts,Above areas of rainfall,less Atlantic Tropical activity etc,etc.


Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice It's already here folks...a MAJOR El Nino event underway; stronger atmos. forcing than 1997 at this point in time.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Mid-July plume of models that are both Dynamic and Statistical models on a consensus to forecast a Strong El Nino event that may last thru early 2016.

[dexterlabio]

So we are still recognizing the last quarter of last year as the beginning of this El Nino event, am I right? The recent super El Nino's had the warming early in their respective years, while this year's El Nino had things heating up as early as summer 2014.

Not sure though if the short blip from January to March is enough to recognize this year's El Nino as a separate event.

[Ntxw]

So we are still recognizing the last quarter of last year as the beginning of this El Nino event, am I right? The recent super El Nino's had the warming early in their respective years, while this year's El Nino had things heating up as early as summer 2014.

Not sure though if the short blip from January to March is enough to recognize this year's El Nino as a separate event.

0.1C difference IMO with the new dataset (ERSSTv3 vs ERSSTv4) I'd just go ahead and call it a multi-year Nino as Larry mentioned. 0.4C vs 0.5C one trimonthly dip really doesn't make a whole lot of difference, there's no magical line and it will change again once they settle on a different dataset. This El Nino began essentially September of last year when the little hiatus of July/August 2014 halted the weekly >0.5C readings that started in April resumed in September.

Thus far 2015-2016 Nino is already historic for May and June data, July probably will come in pretty strong. It's well ahead of 1982 trailing a little in the Ocean to 1997, but the atmospheric response has been stronger than 1997. Like all other official Nino's second coming is in the fall (last year resumed) so the big question is will we get an official Super El Nino as this will intensify with climo?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lowest 30-day SOI value since March 2010

[johngaltfla]

Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.

WOW! This could really cause major disruptions to agriculture in the United States if this verifies soon!

[MississippiWx]

New sub-surface data is out and it's amazing how quickly the water is warming thanks to the record-setting WWB earlier this month. I'm on my phone, so I'll attach the link. The sub-surface will catch up with 97's strength in no time if this pace continues.

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/622425772347621378

[cycloneye]

I see +1.6C on Mondays CPC update.What is your number Ntxw?

[Ntxw]

I see +1.6C on Mondays CPC update.What is your number Ntxw?

I'm going to guess 1.7C. We've been close to 1997 with a nudge or two below, which the same reading back then was 1.8C.

[xironman]

I just hope CFS needs to move their scale again

[Ntxw]

Looks like this week's update is 1.7C

Given where we are at so early in an ENSO timescale and where it is moving I'd say we are looking at a top 3 event. For July it is easily second. Just as comparison 2009 was the most recent big Nino, 1.7C was achieved in December of that year.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 up to +1.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf