Strong Squall Line on Africa

[Gustywind]

Looks like given my untrained eyes that this squall line shows up very well on sat apparence. Way to early to anticipate what could happen once it goes offshore (first should it sustain that bulk of heavy convection!) but that's a pretty one for sure and at least for now.
This could be our next... on pouch mode?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-ft.html

[CrazyC83]

It's dry and sheared over the Atlantic? Realistically I think it would have to develop VERY quickly, i.e. before Cape Verde, to have a chance.

[Yellow Evan]

To be honest, why does this have a thread?

It has no model support. NONE at all. It's just a random area of showers that is not threat at this time. I know you guys are bored, but geez. If there's anything to watch, it's off the SE coast.

[Hammy]

To be honest, why does this have a thread?

It has no model support. NONE at all. It's just a random area of showers that is not threat at this time. I know you guys are bored, but geez. If there's anything to watch, it's off the SE coast.

While I don't necessarily think this will develop, the Atlantic seems to be a tad less dry than it was last July, with somewhat stronger waves overall. And TD2 last year formed from a similar wave to this (which emerged about the same time) and formed with zero model support, so if nothing else the thread is justified.

[gatorcane]

Hammy yes agreed. It is not as dry out there across the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago and the waves look stronger this year than last year so far. This wave looks rather impressive. It rolled off Africa last night. Looping the image shows clear cyclonic rotation just off the coastline but it looks like it might be getting hit with easterly shear. There is no model support so it probably won't develop but each wave is getting stronger and stronger...

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Gustywind]

Hammy yes agreed. It is not as dry out there across the MDR as it was a couple of weeks ago and the waves look stronger this year than last year so far. This wave looks rather impressive as it has just rolled off Africa. Looping the image shows clear cyclonic rotation but it looks like it might be getting hit with easterly shear. There is no model support so it probably won't develop but each wave is getting stronger and stronger...

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Good reply Gatorcane, excellent analysis . I do think that this thread will keep our eyes open on what could happen at anytime in the deep tropics in spite of the apparent hostile conditions. As usual... don't let your guard down, let's wait and see!

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive indeed! Guarantee 99% sure it will cave in and fizzle due to the hostile conditions currently out there.

In any given season with hostile conditions in the MDR it seems these waves always look impressive at first as they roll off the West Africa coast before choking within 24-48hrs. after splash down.

[CajunMama]

To be honest, why does this have a thread?

It has no model support. NONE at all. It's just a random area of showers that is not threat at this time. I know you guys are bored, but geez. If there's anything to watch, it's off the SE coast.

Really? It has interest to Gustywind. If you don't like it, don't participate in the thread and skip right over it.


Have a great day!

[WPBWeather]

To be honest, why does this have a thread?

It has no model support. NONE at all. It's just a random area of showers that is not threat at this time. I know you guys are bored, but geez. If there's anything to watch, it's off the SE coast.

Really? It has interest to Gustywind. If you don't like it, don't participate in the thread and skip right over it.


Have a great day!

You tell 'em CM!

[Gustywind]

To be honest, why does this have a thread?

It has no model support. NONE at all. It's just a random area of showers that is not threat at this time. I know you guys are bored, but geez. If there's anything to watch, it's off the SE coast.

Really? It has interest to Gustywind. If you don't like it, don't participate in the thread and skip right over it.


Have a great day!

Thanks it makes sense to me CajunMama

[gatorcane]

very nice spin with this wave but convection around the LLC (10N, 18W) is on the decrease. Just 3-4 weeks later and this wave would probably have a pretty decent shot at development out there:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Gustywind]

very nice spin with this wave but convection around the LLC (10N, 18W) is on the decrease. Just 3-4 weeks later and this wave would probably have a pretty decent shot at development out there:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Absolutely Gatorcane... as climato goes against and hostile conditions at the present are hindering development. Matter of time, time, time

[floridasun78]

but i see dry air killing it softy as move to west

[TheStormExpert]

Around 10N, 18.5W looks like a very evident swirl that looks to be nearly naked.

[Gustywind]

Interresting to note that another blob is further east and could have the same treatment from its predecessor... difficult trip for these twaves!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-ft.html