EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

20/0000 UTC 9.5N 108.7W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific

Might be nearing T2.5 due to extra banding, but constraints don't allow that

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 69 74 78 82 84 84
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 69 74 78 82 84 84
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 47 54 65 76 89 100 104 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 22 27 26 20 18 13 8 4 4 7 8 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -6 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 1
SHEAR DIR 27 32 34 41 36 30 26 35 55 44 56 74 65
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 157 159 159 157 153 148 143 141 135
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 80 78 76 74 70 69 67 63 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 16 18 22 24 27
850 MB ENV VOR 22 13 4 4 0 -17 -22 -18 -11 -9 6 11 26
200 MB DIV 148 138 115 107 104 74 66 47 72 28 34 5 9
700-850 TADV -7 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2
LAND (KM) 1049 1052 1061 1065 1081 1127 1159 1171 1176 1191 1195 1214 1263
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 42 45 47 51 58 68 46 35 45 37 29 21 14

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI

Track too far north. Probs has 6-7 over very warm waters, and should have a decent amount of time over low shear.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i61.tinypic.com/2qlbt4y.giif
looks a nice equatorial inflow on this system.

Looks good structurally wise so far. Has 6-7 days oer warm waters and shear should decline in 2 days. Like it's chances at becoming a major.

[Yellow Evan]

Convection seems to have declined as usual for this time of night.

[cycloneye]

A setback:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have become a little less organized since yesterday.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to decrease and become more
conducive for development on Tuesday, and a tropical depression is
still likely to form within the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 43 50 54 58 60 59 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 43 50 54 58 60 59 57
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 33 37 42 45 45 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 29 30 23 20 17 12 8 4 7 8 7 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -4 0 1 4 -1
SHEAR DIR 40 41 36 31 28 12 342 325 323 338 351 13 27
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 153 150 147 147 146 146 141 135 127
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 74 73 71 71 67 66 66 67 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 13 13 17 19 21 23 23 23
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -9 -17 -26 -25 -29 -27 -27 -17 -17 -12 -20
200 MB DIV 83 78 62 61 56 36 37 72 43 37 13 10 -33
700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 6 2 4 -2
LAND (KM) 894 890 896 923 958 992 977 990 1022 1043 1009 1013 1069
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 56 56 45 41 41 41 32 28 30 21 14 5 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 18. 25. 29. 33. 35. 34. 32.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

SHIPS/LGEM seemed to have backed off this run, and the guidance now shows mostly moderate shear.

Shear should stop development today, but it should diminish somewhat thereafter.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF barely develops this now. GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are now the aggressive ones, calling for a minimal hurricane. Strength will largely depend on if the storm can find an area of less than 7 knt of shear or so. It should have 2 days over decent conditions, but I only expect it to be a weak tropical storm at that time.

[cycloneye]

Shear holding this to develop for now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become less organized since
yesterday. Strong upper-level winds that have prevented development
during the past 24 hours are forecast to decrease and become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two.
This system is still expected to become a tropical depression by
mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF barely,I mean very barely develops this.

[Yellow Evan]

It was looking better, but seems to have looked worse in most recent frame.

Still confident on development, and this may still have a shot at a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

What a change of pace from yesterday.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 34 25 23 20 19 12 9 7 12 9 9 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 3 3 4 4
SHEAR DIR 39 41 38 38 34 13 355 337 324 322 348 20 25
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 151 150 149 148 147 144 138 129 120
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 73 70 69 67 64 63 63 63 59 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 11 13 14 16 18 21 23 23 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -15 -22 -26 -29 -30 -29 -34 -33 -39 -40 -53
200 MB DIV 69 65 65 65 52 30 60 49 42 6 -12 0 -25
700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 1 3 4
LAND (KM) 878 882 900 936 978 1007 1041 1041 1022 1040 1091 1138 1172
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.9 19.0 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.7 118.0 119.8 121.4 122.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 58 49 39 39 41 40 32 34 23 17 9 12 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 15. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 30. 31. 27. 23.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/20/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 49 54 55 56 52 48
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 34 25 23 20 19 12 9 7 12 9 9 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 3 3 4 4
SHEAR DIR 39 41 38 38 34 13 355 337 324 322 348 20 25
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 151 150 149 148 147 144 138 129 120
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 73 70 69 67 64 63 63 63 59 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 11 13 14 16 18 21 23 23 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -15 -22 -26 -29 -30 -29 -34 -33 -39 -40 -53
200 MB DIV 69 65 65 65 52 30 60 49 42 6 -12 0 -25
700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 1 3 4
LAND (KM) 878 882 900 936 978 1007 1041 1041 1022 1040 1091 1138 1172
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.9 19.0 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.7 118.0 119.8 121.4 122.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 58 49 39 39 41 40 32 34 23 17 9 12 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 15. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 30. 31. 27. 23.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/20/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located about 650 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to strong
upper-level winds that have prevented development during the past
24 hours are forecast to steadily decrease and become more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two. This
system is still expected to become a tropical depression by mid-week
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

If convection can warp around more, this is def worthy of an upgrade.

I think SHIPS is over-initializing shear right now (CMISS maps show 10 knts of shear that is increasing). It's not in almost 40 knots of shear like the SHIPS suggest.

The question for this is how long will the storm be over low shear. Conditions should allow for at least slow intensification after 24 hours, although more and more shear is being projected after the 21st by the SHIPS so we'll see. If it can find less than 5 knts of shear for an extended period of time, this can take off, but that's a big if.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/21/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 42 47 52 54 52 48 44 37
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 42 47 52 54 52 48 44 37
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 36 38 41 45 46 45 43 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 24 24 23 21 15 14 9 9 10 14 9 11 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 0 1 -3 0 -1 0 -2 1 0 3
SHEAR DIR 40 38 33 31 24 12 10 9 8 359 8 1 17
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.8 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 150 149 147 147 147 142 136 128 120 116
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 69 69 68 64 63 61 60 55 54 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 11 12 14 15 15 14 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -18 -21 -23 -24 -29 -35 -32 -49 -47 -52 -60
200 MB DIV 85 61 51 51 27 27 38 6 1 -16 -27 -26 -23
700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -6 -2 0 2
LAND (KM) 878 912 954 975 972 982 1016 1030 1015 1015 1074 1140 1190
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 40 37 38 40 37 29 32 23 15 5 12 2 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 22. 24. 22. 18. 14. 7.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/21/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Based on these conditions, I would not expect much more than a strong TS, but we'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Moderate upper-level winds that have
been inhibiting development are forecast to steadily decrease and
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next
day or so. This system is still expected to become a tropical
depression by mid-week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like YET another major in the making!

Guess I spoke too soon 2 days ago, IMO it'll be lucky enough to be a Tropical Storm!

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like YET another major in the making!

Guess I spoke too soon 2 days ago, IMO it'll be lucky enough to be a Tropical Storm!

Still a solid better for a tropical storm IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure centered about 550 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds
are still inhibiting the development of this low. However, only a
small decrease in those winds should result in the formation of a
tropical depression during the next day or so. The system is
forecast to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS barely develops this.

[galaxy401]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a
little better defined since yesterday, however, the shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Upper-level winds have
become a little more conducive for development and this system is
still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day
or so. The low is forecast to move over cooler waters on Friday and
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts