2015 Global model runs discussion

[stormlover2013]

I say 20-30 percent weak trop storm could develop

[gatorcane]

18Z MU shows nothing of interest coming out of this front next week.

[Hammy]

18Z MU shows nothing of interest coming out of this front next week.

Could be a sign of formation later on, GFS only shows storms when there won't be any.

The NAM was actually the first model to sniff out Claudette's development, unfortunately any formation that would occur is still outside of the run period.

Euro weakened the Gulf system but continues to show something off the EC at 192h, and I remember a few days back it showed something in the N Atlantic for a single run at the ten day mark and then dropped it, this could be that storm, and it shows a warm spot in the temp anomalies as well, indicating tropical nature.

Edit: this is playing out like everything this year and last year did: get to seven day point, Euro drops it but GFS starts showing development.

[jlauderdal]

model storms are iffy in normal years..well this year the conditions for tropical development are so poor that anything outside of 72 hours is really just a prayer...it only takes one storm but the setup this season is very weak...will check back in a month and see where we are but i predict you might get two named systems between now and sept 1.,,,that's generous.

[Dean4Storms]

Even if something attempts to form at the surface along the base of this upcoming trough it is likely to be held in check by shear and mid level dry air, either that or run out of water.

These type TC formations usually need to sit over water for several days unimpeded and don't think it will have that kind of time and conditions.

[TheStormExpert]

Even if something were to develop it would likely IMO last only a couple of days and be relatively weak. Still I put odds at development only at 5-10%. Yes the Euro is our best model it seems but even I'm feeling skeptical.

[Frank2]

This makes me think of the Andrew scenario, but in 1992 (23 years ago) the atmosphere was less hostile than it is now - never say never, but with El Nino increasing it's unlikely that anything significant will develop at least until the heart of the season.

Frank

[Hurricanehink]

The pattern seems similar to early August of 2002, when a stalled out trough spawned storms east and west of Florida, also in an El Niño year. The same year saw a July storm form east of North Carolina in July, and featured many subtropical and short-lived storms (Isidore, Kyle, and Lili being the exceptions).

[gatorcane]

last few runs of the long-range CFS model show a system threatening the SE United States from the southeast in a few weeks (mid August). In the last run (today's 00Z), it impacts Florida. Three frames below to show where it thinks the system comes from and that is just north of the Caribbean (a favorable area for development).

Aug 14th:


Aug 15th:


Aug 16th:

[TheStormExpert]

Since as of recently most global models have been all over the place many of times beyond 2-3 days. How has the CFS been doing with it's extreme long range forecasts?

[Javlin]

August holds more concern and eyeballs than any other month for the NGOM.The HP could set up further E or W by that time frame if anything comes to fruition.

[Hammy]

I'm not completely writing off the Euro runs yet since it tends to drop things medium range. And interestingly the CFS showed something months ago for a good consistent amount of time in late July/early August in the general vicinity of the Euro's storms.

[Alyono]

EC didn't drop this. It shifted it east. It has a TS SW of Bermuda

[TheStormExpert]

Long-range CFS is starting to show some systems. This is the first one for mid August that approaches the SE US Coast from the SE:

Interesting what gatorcane posted earlier because the end of June he posted the CFS showing something similar off the SE U.S. Coast around the same timeframe.

[gatorcane]

EC didn't drop this. It shifted it east. It has a TS SW of Bermuda

Yep, and here is the image so members can see:

[tropicwatch]

Well the weather channel just mentioned the possibility of two lows. One in the gulf and one in the Atlantic. So it must be true

[blp]

Long-range CFS is starting to show some systems. This is the first one for mid August that approaches the SE US Coast from the SE:

[]http://i.imgur.com/LuKeEz1.gif[/img]

Interesting what gatorcane posted earlier because the end of June he posted the CFS showing something similar off the SE U.S. Coast around the same timeframe.

Thanks for posting Gatorcane. Below is a closer look. It has been showing this for 4 runs now. I tend to look at the CFS for steering patterns and it has been quite good in the past at doing that. I don't use for specific development area but given this consistency it is interesting to watch. It should start showing up in the GFS in the next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the weather channel just mentioned the possibility of two lows. One in the gulf and one in the Atlantic. So it must be true

Only one will form and it will more than likely be the Atlantic one since the Euro only develops that one now.

Funny how the GFS goes from being on crack last season showing a storm every run it seemed, to this season not showing much of all except here and there randomly. Some things can't be fixed I guess?

[tolakram]

Well the weather channel just mentioned the possibility of two lows. One in the gulf and one in the Atlantic. So it must be true

Only one will form and it will more than likely be the Atlantic one since the Euro only develops that one now.

Funny how the GFS goes from being on crack last season showing a storm every run it seemed, to this season not showing much of all except here and there randomly. Some things can't be fixed I guess?

The GFS always has issues in this area because it sometimes will place the low over land and never develop it. All the models tend to have this issue to some degree when formation is in close. In the open ocean if your off by 100 miles it's not that big of a deal but when close to shore it's make or break for predicting development. IMO.

[blp]

CFS 12z run out. 5th run in a row showing the weak stealthy wave crossing the islands and getting to Bahamas mid August. Looks a little stronger on this run.

CFS is usually not this consistent being so far out. It has my attention.