We are actually tracking very in proximity path to 1997. Side by side the pool underneath in 1997 in July is a bit stronger due to the KW starting in June of that year and maturing, but the thermocline slope difference is really less than 50m, even half that, as the KW continues to push it will get close. At the surface, this similar week in 1997 actually stair steps and cools as it pushes 2C into August. The big warming then resumed in September into fall. By August the 2 should remain fairly similar in ENSO 3.4 region. The big difference is 1+2 which 1997 beats 2015 and this year's warmth is more spread out between all four regions.
![Image](http://i61.tinypic.com/6z0xo8.gif)
![Image](http://i58.tinypic.com/anijcl.gif)
And if you're still wondering or questioning it (and there are still a few meteorologists who do) the Nino has seen moderate weekly readings since late April >1C and near or above strong since mid June. Lets say it collapses from this on forward, we would still see a 1987-1988 esque event at the lower end scenario.