2015 Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

It's interesting to note the 12Z UKMET run at 144 hours bring this very close to the Outer Banks. That is a tropical storm it is showing:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

:uarrow: We can't rule out a Arthur like track from last season, and by the looks of it the Euro develops barely a Tropical Storm.

If so I hope it remains weak, as Arthur was the worse tropical system to impact this region since Bob in 1991.

[gatorcane]

and you can see what the ECMWF and UKMET are seeing. We have a big area of convection (obviously enhanced by daytime heating) about ready to roll off the SE U.S. coast plus look at the areas of vorticity over the SE U.S. Convection should roll offshore and partially wane with the lost of daytime heating but with a trough forming new convection should start to fire East of NE Florida over the next 24-48 hours.

[Hammy]

I wonder if the NC system can manage to develop briefly similarly to Claudette once it moves off.

[lovingseason2013]

So I guess no rain for SE Florida from any of these?

[Yellow Evan]

At this point, I'd favor an OTS track given that's what all guidance shows right now, and IMO is the most likely.

[Hammy]

0z NAM is out, still showing a very frontal system with the NC low.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF and GFS keep the same system over land.

[Alyono]

EC has been showing a depression or a cyclone despite remaining over land.

If this moves over the water, something nightmarish may occur

[stormlover2013]

Where does it show it at?

[Hammy]

Euro is sending a 90 mph hurricane into Nova Scotia now and it looks like it's moved development up to the seven day point.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes it does and it looks that it originates from the NE GoM low that crosses North/Central Florida before starting to develop over the Northeast Florida coast, then affecting the NC OBX as a Strong TS/Minimal Hurricane, and the rest you said. My only question is does it seem frontal?

00z ECMWF Hr.96


00z ECMWF Hr.120


00z ECMWF Hr.144


00z ECMWF Hr.168


00z ECMWF Hr.192


00z ECMWF Hr.216


00z ECMWF Hr.240

[Alyono]

EC now agrees with UKMET and indicates a significant TC in the BOB

[ronjon]

Have to keep an eye on the NE GOM the next several days as ECM and GFS showing weak low pressure developing early next week. Latest GFS shows 850 mb vorticity eventually moving north into FL panhandle.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I' not writing off the Eastern Half of GOM possible development with this. Now the ECM has trended much further West with the Low and it developing. This could easily trend further back into the Eastern GOM, lots could change. We're still a good week out!

[TheStormExpert]

Unlike tropical cyclones like Arthur this is originating from a low pressure area along a decaying frontal boundary which means the low could form anywhere along it in the vicinity of the SE U.S. Arthur originated from a non-tropical low that moved off the SE U.S. Coast.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF shows the low deepening over land (Northern Florida) which is pretty interesting, 168 hours below. Note while the ECMWF develops this low, it has pushed the timeframe out beyond 5 days. UKMET also is beyond 5 days and not as strong. Hence NHC did not mention it in their Outlook yet.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with those who have stated that the latest trends seem to be shifting farther to the west. Development could very well take place in the Eastern/NE GOM along that decaying frontal boundary. We should have a better idea by the end of the weekend of how the models are trending, but obviously, the odds are increasing that we will possibly have some type of tropical entity within the next 5-7 days down across the NE Gulf/SE Atlantic region.

[Javlin]

I don't know if this is the supposed energy for development but the ULL is going W in the GOM leaving the NEGOM low on shear here before long.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[northjaxpro]

Right, the ULL in the SW GOM/BOC region is moving westward. That feature will eventually move far enough away in which should allow shear levels to drop off to at least marginally conducive conditions in the NE GOM in the next couple of days. Once the front reaches the NE GOM region by Sunday, where it will stall and decay, I would not be surprised to see possible Low pressure development, either in the NE GOM or off the GA/NE FL coast by early next week.