2015 Global model runs discussion

[CrazyC83]

Pressures must be high in the Atlantic for 989mb to produce such a strong storm near Nova Scotia.

[Yellow Evan]

Pressures must be high in the Atlantic for 989mb to produce such a strong storm near Nova Scotia.

ECMWF run that was posted wasn't full res.

[gatorcane]

Yea, I' not writing off the Eastern Half of GOM possible development with this. Now the ECM has trended much further West with the Low and it developing. This could easily trend further back into the Eastern GOM, lots could change. We're still a good week out!

Well the GEM has come alive and going with a Northeast GOM solution with a tropical storm now that drifts into the Pan handle / big bend of Florida, in the long-range:

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, I' not writing off the Eastern Half of GOM possible development with this. Now the ECM has trended much further West with the Low and it developing. This could easily trend further back into the Eastern GOM, lots could change. We're still a good week out!

Well the GEM has come alive and going with a Northeast GOM solution with a tropical storm now that drifts into the Pan handle / big bend of Florida, in the long-range:

http://i.imgur.com/9TGDJ4I.png

It's the CMC.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

[PTrackerLA]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

This is wrong, 12z Euro has it just further east. Out to 138hrs it is a strong tropical storm south of North Carolina possibly trending toward the coast. Will update.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro has it and even stronger on this run. Will post latest image shortly. Time for the NHC to start mentioning development possibility soon in my opinion. The Euro has been getting very consistent now on development the past several runs.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont put any thing on outlook yet so wait see game

[tolakram]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

It did not drop it.

Time sensitive link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015072412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=400

From this site: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[NCSTORMMAN]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

This is wrong, 12z Euro has it just further east. Out to 138hrs it is a strong tropical storm south of North Carolina possibly trending toward the coast. Will update.

So, trending toward landfall? So, is it moving NW? NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! please make it go east. People in Wilmington, NC area do not a storm.

[gatorcane]

144 hours, looks more intense than the 00Z Euro:

[tolakram]

144h

[gatorcane]

168 hours Euro is super intense!

[PTrackerLA]

Out to 150 hrs 996mb getting closer to Outer Banks as it drifts northward....

[NCSTORMMAN]

168 hours Euro is super intense!

No where near land right?

[gatorcane]

Just offshore the outer banks, 984MB:

[tolakram]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

Just a reminder here, do not post statements that can't be backed up by an official source, that's a good example of completely false information. It happens, we need to be careful, especially if/when we have a storm nearing the coast.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I just seen on twitter that the ECMWF dropped the storm again lol. If that is true we need to start questioning who is updating these models. No offense to those people but it seems like the models are getting worse and worse every year. Of course that is only my opinion and may not be everyone's opinion.

Just a reminder here, do not post statements that can;t be backed up by an official source, that's a good example of completely false information. It happens, we need to be careful, especially if/when we have a storm nearing the coast.

Will not do it again. Crazy thing is the person claims to be a chaser https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs that is his twitter feed. I am sorry for the post. Back to watching what people post and shutting up unless I have questions.

[tolakram]

Well offshore at 168 hours

[gatorcane]

168 hours Euro is super intense!

No where near land right?

192 hours might better describe "super intense" as it moves away from the United States. But Nova Scotia could be target on this run. Getting into the long-range. Euro has it at 969MB.