EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Tropical Depression FELICIA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242054
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia consists of a swirl of low clouds with little or no deep
convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago suggested that the
system may have weakened a bit, but the pass did not capture all of
the circulation. Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for
now. Weakening is likely as the system traverses waters cooler
than 25 deg C and continues to ingest stable air. The official
forecast now shows remnant low status in 12 hours, and Felicia could
degenerate even sooner than that.

The motion continues toward the northwest or 310/10 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast philosophy from the last few
advisory packages. Felicia or its remnants should be steered by the
flow to the southwest of a mid-level high pressure area through
tonight. Thereafter, the system should turn westward and move
within the low-level easterly flow. The official track forecast is
close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 22.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 23.4N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 23.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours, and
since the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures of around 23 deg
C, there is little likelihood of the system making comeback.
On this basis, Felicia is being declared a remnant low with 25-kt
winds, and this is the last advisory. Continued weakening of the
cyclone is expected while it remains over cool waters and ingests
drier and more stable air. Dissipation is predicted in 2 to
3 days, following the global models.

The remnant low is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The
shallow system is expected to turn west-northwestward on Saturday
and westward on Sunday within the low-level trade wind flow. The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1200Z 23.9N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 24.2N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 24.4N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 24.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi