2015 EPAC Season

#581 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:59 pm

Looking at the CMC, GFS, and CFS ensembles. the EPAC will likely be very busy the next month or so. The CFS has us to Rick by early September. The GFS has Guillermo by day 4, Hilda by day 6, and Ignacio by day 11. The CMC has a bunch of storms near the ITCZ.

Looking at the operational runs, NASA has 3 storms in 10 days (2 EPAC, 1 CPAC). UKMET has 4 storms in 5 days. The FIM 8 and 9 both show a combined 1 storm (CPAC one in 12 days) after Felicia though, so let's not get too carried away.

#582 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:00 pm

An area of low pressure could form well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

#583 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:51 am

An area of low pressure could form well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next week. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

#584 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:32 am

Way out at 240 hours but another possible Hawaii threat.

#585 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:29 am

Looking at GFS ensembles, most of them take this north of Hawaii. GFS operational run doesn't do much with it, but it appears the track is shifting north on that model as well. Just my gut, but I have a feeling this passes Hawaii to its north and is akin to Julio.

#586 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:35 pm

Haven't been posting much as I've been in Vegas for some basketball tournaments, but I've been keeping up with the ECMWF.

00z run is weaker and moving south.

#587 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:41 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Looking at GFS ensembles, most of them take this north of Hawaii. GFS operational run doesn't do much with it, but it appears the track is shifting north on that model as well. Just my gut, but I have a feeling this passes Hawaii to its north and is akin to Julio.

Just me, but I pretty much ignore everything Hawaii related coming from the GFS until further notice.

However, it's really interesting how the models have a train of storms moving towards Hawaii in July.

#588 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:56 pm

Looks like the 12z Euro keeps the first system south of Hawaii (better to wait to have a storm first before guessing the track)

But it deepens the following storm into a major hurricane :double:

#589 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Haven't been posting much as I've been in Vegas for some basketball tournaments, but I've been keeping up with the ECMWF.

00z run is weaker and moving south.

Regarding your first line, interesting. This is coming from a big basketball fan

Anyhow, back on topic. I wouldn't get too worried yet as the GFS is suggesting a sheared environment and only the NASA and ECMWF are really bullish on this. Something to watch. Alo worth noting though that this system has GFS ensemble support, but they hae a more northeasterly course.

#590 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:16 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

#591 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:11 pm

0z GFS rolling out through four days.

Actually develops the 0/30 thing now.

#592 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:45 pm

0z GFS brings this close to the Aloha State as a post tropical remnant low.

#593 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:01 am

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible
after that time while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

#594 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:12 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure more than a thousand miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression could form by middle of next week as the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

#595 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:46 pm

6z and 2z GFS the same as 0z GFs.

0z ECMWF was weaker with both systems, but still brought the second to 960mbar by day 10.

#596 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:46 pm

Another area of low pressure could form early next week well
to the south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

We have Invest 90E.

#597 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:47 pm

0/30 is too high given the fairy little model support.

#598 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:17 pm

I question if conditions are that conducive near Hawaii.

#599 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:47 pm

They might, but the ECMWF and UKMET are the only models to have this.

#600 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:22 am

12z ECMWF had a monster, but 0z backed off and favored 99E.

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