WPAC: HALOLA - Post-Tropical

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Cams from Okinawa showing a wet and cloudy scene. Nothing serious...

http://www.qab.co.jp/pindex/livenahacity.php
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/yoron/tv/

[galaxy401]

Heading towards Japan now.

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TXPQ28 KNES 251510
TCSWNP

A. 01C (HALOLA)

B. 25/1432Z

C. 28.8N

D. 129.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT-3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER ON
EDGE OF OVERCAST. PT-3.0. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/1100Z 28.2N 129.6E SSMIS
25/1235Z 28.3N 129.6E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

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It's collapsing

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WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 64//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS RELAXED
SLIGHTLY TO 25 KTS, ALLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK
CLOSER TO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEAR LLCC IN THE
VISIBLE LOOP AND RJTD RADAR FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE IN A 252329Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STEADILY DECLINING, AND
TS 01C HAS NOT YET TAPPED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT. TS 01C IS
ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TS 01C IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST OF KYUSHU. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HONSHU AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS AS WELL AS
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE NEARBY COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 36, PARTICULARLY IF THE POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SHIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER LAND. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THAN THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

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WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 65//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND IS
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VWS. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE WANING CONVECTION. TS 01C IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWEST TIP OF KYUSHU BEFORE TAU 12, THEN STRADDLE THE
WESTERN COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. CONTINUED VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND EXPOSURE TO COLD
SSTS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 24,
POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//