2015 WPAC Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
NWS
A CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND ON SCATTEREMOTER DATA THIS MORNING
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL SHOW THIS
FEATURE AND MOVE IT WESTWARD. THEY PREDICT IT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS AROUND SUNDAY THE 2ND OF AUGUST. THE
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE CIRCULATION REMAINING WEAK BUT THEY
BRING RAIN OVER THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE OUR NEXT
MAJOR PRODUCER OF RAINFALL.
A CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND ON SCATTEREMOTER DATA THIS MORNING
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL SHOW THIS
FEATURE AND MOVE IT WESTWARD. THEY PREDICT IT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS AROUND SUNDAY THE 2ND OF AUGUST. THE
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE CIRCULATION REMAINING WEAK BUT THEY
BRING RAIN OVER THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE OUR NEXT
MAJOR PRODUCER OF RAINFALL.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
Very large monsoon Soudelor...
A VERY QUIET PATTERN OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY
CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ABOVE 7000 FT WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ISLAND HEATING. THE
NEXT CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MIGHT COME LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE GFS BRINGS A LARGE MONSOON CIRCULATION WEST TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES A TROPICAL CYCLONE WEST TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS INDEED SOME DISTURBED WEATHER
OUT NEAR THE DATE LINE...BUT IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND A LOT HAS
TO HAPPEN BEFORE WE SEE ANY TROPICAL CYCLONES COMING OUR WAY. ON
THE OTHER HAND...MONSOON WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR AND SOUTH OF 10N FROM PALAU EASTWARD TO THE DATE
LINE...AND THIS IS A LIKELY PRECURSOR TO CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
A piece of energy breaks off from Soudelor as it tracks to the Okinawa area and intensifies to Typhoon Molave at a fairly high latitude...
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
EURO even more robust in this run brings a strengthening Soudelor north of Saipan.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
12Z GFS and 12Z EURO agrees on a track somewhere over the Northern Marianas and both now agree that Soudelor will be a formidable typhoon but GFS makes it one after it crosses the islands...From there, the track diverges significantly...
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euro6208
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euro6208
Re: Re:
spiral wrote:spiral wrote:Big active rossby wave moving from east to west.
GFS +4DAYS
We may score another out of season cyclone in the shem from this R/W with duel systems on each side of the equator.
We had twins in the previous WWB's looking like we may have another twins with another round of WWB.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
Looks like 2 LPA's, one east and the other west of the dateline, will emerge and become a significant tropical cyclone Soudelor down the road. Kwajalein and the Marshall Islands could get plenty of rain from this as it slowly evolves...
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
Just look how far north that 26.5C is during July...Incredible...29C also encompasses a large area...The WPAC is like no other basin...
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
EURO is a bit weaker and more northerly on this run but still brings a typhoon for the far northern islands. Interesting to note that it brings a hurricane from the CPAC
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
It's deja vu all over again.
GFS more weaker and more south but from there, it strengthens Soudelor into a strong typhoon and Shanghai and the Southern Ryukyu Islands are the targets yet again!
GFS more weaker and more south but from there, it strengthens Soudelor into a strong typhoon and Shanghai and the Southern Ryukyu Islands are the targets yet again!
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
NWS
THE BIGGER STORY REVOLVES AROUND A WEAK CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THE
DIFFERENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE GFS TAKES THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE ECMWF...MOVING IT AS A
WELL DEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF AGRIHAN AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER ON THE EXPECTED
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT...SO EXPECT A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE BIGGER STORY REVOLVES AROUND A WEAK CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THE
DIFFERENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE GFS TAKES THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE ECMWF...MOVING IT AS A
WELL DEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF AGRIHAN AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER ON THE EXPECTED
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT...SO EXPECT A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
00Z GFS sensing more tropical trouble after Soudelor...It showing twins Molave and Goni...
EURO does show 2 LPA's slowly developing and look at Soudelor!
EURO does show 2 LPA's slowly developing and look at Soudelor!
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208
Re: 2015 WPAC Season
Lowest pressure i see from Soudelor is 915 mb but the isobars are so tightly packed and so powerful, it pretty much can't read through most of it...
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season
JMA has an LPA and a TD by 24 hrs?
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