Development off SE U.S coast?
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- northjaxpro
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If that pans out, we are in for one heck of a rain event across North and Central Florida next week.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- northjaxpro
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Also, interesting to see EURO come around to the CMC and what that model as showing the past couple of days of Low pressure forming in the NE GOM.
CMC may deserve kudos when it is all said and done. We shall see.
CMC may deserve kudos when it is all said and done. We shall see.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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yeah, one heck of a wet week is in tap for FL if indeed this pans out.
Meanwhile I am in St Augustine today, trough came through this area, nice NE winds in this part of FL, this change in wind direction should help in ending the ongoing upwelling that has present for the past couple weeks, happy beach goers today.
Meanwhile I am in St Augustine today, trough came through this area, nice NE winds in this part of FL, this change in wind direction should help in ending the ongoing upwelling that has present for the past couple weeks, happy beach goers today.
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- northjaxpro
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and NDG you are in my neck of the woods today yes those north east winds feel nice today Definitely can tell the trough axis has shifted to the south of NE Fl.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:Also, interesting to see EURO come around to the CMC and what that model as showing the past couple of days of Low pressure forming in the NE GOM.
CMC may deserve kudos when it is all said and done. We shall see.
I don't think any of the models really have any idea at this point, the Euro/CMC swapped places last night, now the Euro is currently going inbetween where we each thought it would go yesterday, the CMC is dissolving it into a trough, and now the GFS is showing essentially what CMC showed yesterday. It's almost becoming a case of throw a dart and see where it goes.
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- northjaxpro
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x
yeah Hammy it is a general mess with the models but I'm going to give the CMC credit if we do get development in the NE Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. That model consistently initialized potential development there the past couple of days.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:Anyone else see what looks like spin in the northeast Gulf of Mexico near Florida? Or am I just seeing things?
Not just you. NWS Tampa Bay notes in their AFD from about an hour ago:
LOOKING AT THE WIND AND SURFACE PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS...
ONE CAN IMAGINE A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...NEAR
CROSS CITY OR CHIEFLAND.
That low pressure may be tracking toward Jacksonville as now it appears a squall line has formed that is moving SW through North Florida, whereas all the weather over the state the last couple of days including this morning had been moving SE.
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Re:
Hammy wrote:I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.
Models always tend to forecast development quicker than what it actually happens.
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- gatorcane
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well one thing is for sure. The models have trended more towards the Eastern Gulf and away from a system forming off the SE US coast. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS are showing a Gulf low with the UKMET (usually a conservative model) the most bullish developing 1001MB tropical storm that impacts New Orleans at 144 hours.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Development off SE U.S coast?
i see storms increasing in eastern gulf today here in south fl we getting rain this afternoon maybe what Model were picking up
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So basically the models have skidded everybody from Atlantic Canada to Florida and now New Orleans , next will be Tx
Lots of rain for FL though thats certain. Lowering pressures and splitting/moving of heat ridges giving models fits.
Lots of rain for FL though thats certain. Lowering pressures and splitting/moving of heat ridges giving models fits.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Re:
NDG wrote:Hammy wrote:I'm beginning to think nothing is going to develop at all out of this, after days of consistency the models are now all pushing development back with each run.
Models always tend to forecast development quicker than what it actually happens.
Didn't this kind of happen pre-Bill?
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- TheStormExpert
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:So basically the models have skidded everybody from Atlantic Canada to Florida and now New Orleans , next will be Tx
Lots of rain for FL though thats certain. Lowering pressures and splitting/moving of heat ridges giving models fits.
Most certainly not disscounting Florida, there is still the Florida Panhandle.
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- TheStormExpert
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Even though it seems somewhat less likely at the moment there have been a storm form and immediately make landfall and ride up along the East Coast and intensify over land some. Tropical Storm Brenda(1960) did exactly that and Joe Bastardi on Twitter mentions it.
It even caused significant rains in the same places of Florida that are experiencing significant rains now.
It even caused significant rains in the same places of Florida that are experiencing significant rains now.
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