Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[NCSTORMMAN]

latest GFS running, doesn't seem to develop anything at all now through the entire run.

So, the odds are going down right? It looks like all the convection is dying in the gulf and in the atlantic. At least to me it does but I am no weatherman. Am I the only one who feels that way?

There is still some turning in the Gulf, but much of the convection may have been from heating of the day, though there is a bit of new convection forming. I would say for the time being that it's done.

I agree but again I am no weatherman.

[Nimbus]

The Tampa buoy dropped to 1010 as the low dropped southwest over its location.
Once the daytime heating kicks off some convection, the circulation should be evident in the radar echoes.
Often these surface lows just dissipate, but with surface pressure of 1010, falling shear and ULL building in I would up the percentages for tropical storm formation.

Good news for Tampa bay area is that the it appears the LLC once formed will drift SW away from the area that has been receiving the flooding rains.

[tropicwatch]

Visible satellite is coming up and a noticeable circulation is in the eastern GOM.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-84.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[TheStormExpert]

Yes I saw that, and there is also a slightly more definable low just off of Jacksonville. Though both are elongated.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, cyclonic turning evident with some new thunderstorms trying to get going off the coast of SW Florida, looks like maybe something a little south of Tampa Bay?

Also radar out of Tampa:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

[Sanibel]

That's a mess. The upper doesn't look matched with the lower.


Good downpour this am.


Conditions aren't quite there yet. Give it another week or so.

[lovingseason2013]

Has SE Florida been able to get any of the rains? or will they get some relief?

[lovingseason2013]

Has SE Florida been able to get any of the rains? or will they get some relief?

[NDG]

yes, SE FL has been seen some much needed rains thanks to the SW flow.

[NDG]

Saved loop, cyclonic turning evident with some new thunderstorms trying to get going off the coast of SW Florida, looks like maybe something a little south of Tampa Bay?

Also radar out of Tampa:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

http://i.imgur.com/qbGbkF6.gif

Circulation is weak and broad, too much shear and now some dry air is pushing in at mid levels.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Saved loop, cyclonic turning evident with some new thunderstorms trying to get going off the coast of SW Florida, looks like maybe something a little south of Tampa Bay?

Also radar out of Tampa:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/

http://i.imgur.com/qbGbkF6.gif

Circulation is weak and broad, too much shear and now some dry air is pushing in at mid levels.

In other words it has no chance? Right lol?

[TheStormExpert]

It seems in El Niños that the Northern half of the GoM is usually unfavorable while the southern half is the more favorable half.

[NDG]

The current unfavorable conditions over the northeastern GOM has to do more with the current heat ridge over the south central US.
The subtropical jet is way north of the GOM, later on in late summer into early fall is when conditions over the northern GOM become more hostile as the subtropical jet enforced by the current El Niño becomes dominant further south across this area.

[TheStormExpert]

Just two months ago we were talking drought busting and dangerous flooding rains in Texas, now there is a death ridge over Texas. Our weather has been weird here in the U.S.

[gatorcane]

Well now the UKMET is back to the EGOM area pulling it slowly north and shows a 1005MB low over the Georgia/SC border pulling NE:

[crimi481]

Appears to be a circulation close to my location- just off coast near Venice /Englewood
Could be a very wet time ahead

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[northjaxpro]

I mentioned this on the Florida thread. There appears to be a very broad, Low Pressure across the extreme West -Central peninsula or near or just south of Tampa Bay. The counterclockwise rotation across the entire peninsula is clearly evident based on radar and satellite composites.

There may be a tiny circulation within the broader counterclosewise turning in and near the vicinity just off the coast between Sarasota and Ft. Myers

[Sanibel]

Might be a Low center forming over land by Ocala and heading towards the Gulf.


Monsoon rains here.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Am I the only one seeing this thing looks like it is trying to get its act together. It looks like convection is wrapping around a center? Or am I nuts? lol

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax mets are calling for Low Pressure development in the NE GOM beginning tomorrow and meandering out there into mid week. Then late week, the mets at NWS Jax are forecasting the Low to "close off" across the Florida peninsula by next weekend.


AFD Excerpts from late this afternoon

TONIGHT....

PRECIP
WILL FADE TO THE SW THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHILE CONTINUING OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH FORMS AND THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY


THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER JUST WSW
OF OUR FL ZONES MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SSW FLOW AND MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE GULF FUNNELING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES AND OVER
THE MEANDERING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE SAGGING INTO THE SE
U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO MORE CLOUD
COVER.