Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[Nimbus]

Appears to be a circulation close to my location- just off coast near Venice /Englewood
Could be a very wet time ahead

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Scud clouds moving north over Tampa bay, but even with the surface low closing you still need upper level support.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Appears to be a circulation close to my location- just off coast near Venice /Englewood
Could be a very wet time ahead

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Scud clouds moving north over Tampa bay, but even with the surface low closing you still need upper level support.

I am no weatherman (I keep saying it I know) but there is no doubt more spin today then yesterday. There is convection around the center as well of the low. Also, the winds of earth map now have the spin in the Gulf of Mexico as the dominate spin. I was writing this system off but not anymore. My opinion and not a forecast though. You guys have a ton more experience with these things then I do.

[northjaxpro]

18Z WPC /NHC surface analysis at 18Z shows a broad, weak 1012 mb surface reflection just west of Tampa Bay region.

[NCSTORMMAN]

18Z WPC surface analysis at 18Z shows a broad, weak 1012 mb surface reflection just west of Tampa Bay region.

So, more organized then it was or worse off?

[psyclone]

NWS Tampa bay expects this feature to drift north toward the big bend per their afternoon discussion. the atmosphere is warm and wet with high PWATs but somewhat slack instability due to warm temps aloft. the net effect is very tropical weather with very heavy rain taking place with lower than normal amounts of lightning. something else you'll notice in this environment is a fairly benign radar return may in fact be truly torrential rain...something my area has experienced more than I'd care to count the last few days.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NCSTORMMAN it means that a weak Low Pressure indeed has been initialized by the NHC/WPC just to the west of Tampa Bay. It will meander for the next several days based on the models, although a stronger frontal system moving down from the out of the northwest should pick this system up late this week and move out to the northeast.

Regardless, more heavy rains are in store for much of the peninsula, especially West Central peninsula and SW Florida early part of this week, and then Northern Florida later this week as the system finally begins to get picked up off to the northeast eventually.

[Nimbus]

The surface low appears to be off Tampa and scud is rolling nnw but the mid level radar echoes are displaced further south tops rotating off Venice.

That would be consistent with shear from the north from the upper level high.
Not a sure thing, but if the shear relaxes it will be invest worthy, we could see a depression form.

[northjaxpro]

Let me say that the CMC deserves a bit of credit folks. Going back 72 hours ago, the CMC did show Low Pressure development in the NE GOM going out five days.

The CMC normally is not my model of choice in analyzing tropical synoptics, but it did a decent job with this particular feature, to the point in which it made me inclined to be in the NE GOM camp for development over these past several days.

[psyclone]

As the present sensible wx once again demonstrates we need not see development to have some significant impacts. anytime we can get a deeply tropical airmass to rise we're going to get impressive and locally extreme rainfall events. I'm currently in the "no gulf development" camp but you never know. and regardless of what ultimately happens there is a large (and growing) block of real estate that has already received tropical storm sized rainfall amounts.

[northjaxpro]

Exactly psyclone. Extremely heavy rainfall has obviously already occured with the that old trough axis set up bringing in that rich, tropical moisture supply out of the GOM across the West Central peninsula the past couple of days. Some areas are probably approaching a foot of rain.

It is only beginning. Even if the Low remains weak, that south-southwest flow will converge moisture right across your region psyclone, and eventually, that moisture will lift north across my region later this week here in the Jax area. The Low feature is expected to get picked up by another frontal system coming int the Southeast U.S. region hopefully late this week.

[Dean4Storms]

This trough and low forming are still very disorganized. I see a mid level rotation on radar about 100 miles West of Ft. Myers so if the surface low is still near Tampa it is still very disorganized. Shear must relax and convection needs to build over the surface low or the surface low track SSW to get stacked under the mid level rotation.

[northjaxpro]

Right Dean. The Low is very weak and broad, which I indicated earlier, at this time. Shear still is moderate from the north currently. However, one thing I have noticed is that the dry air which was filtering down into the Northern Gulf region has not made any farther progress south today. The area south of the Low west of Tampa Bay is very moist currently, with convection firing off quite decent currently, and I don't see this changing in the short term.

[Steve]

Just two months ago we were talking drought busting and dangerous flooding rains in Texas, now there is a death ridge over Texas. Our weather has been weird here in the U.S.

I could be dead wrong, but don't be surprised if that's done within a few weeks. There was a ton of rain over Central TX, and then high pressure set up as the pattern reversed. I'd bet by mid August or possibly Sept at the latest, rain will return there. Between potential moisture coming out of the tropics in both the Pacific and Gulf, boundaries stalling and eventually an El Niño enhanced Southern Jet getting going, I think there is too much moisture already in the pattern to perpetuate drought there. I guess we will see.

As for the surface feature near Florida, looks to be somewhat slow to either develop or move out. GFS sees a lot of 5-10" along the SE coast, but it's hard to say if it's just general troughiness or possibly a couple of (weak?) surface features. Bastardi thought that if the next trough sets up farther west than what the ensemble mean of the ecmwf showed, then you'd have to look either side of Florida. That would be behind a fairly strong cold front down into the Appalachians which in my mind would probably be a second wave of energy coming out of this current pattern in the general area of Florida- maybe 8-12 days???

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well, NCSTORMMAN it means that a weak Low Pressure indeed has been initialized by the NHC/WPC just to the west of Tampa Bay. It will meander for the next several days based on the models, although a stronger frontal system moving down from the out of the northwest should pick this system up late this week and move out to the northeast.

Regardless, more heavy rains are in store for much of the peninsula, especially West Central peninsula and SW Florida early part of this week, and then Northern Florida later this week as the system finally begins to get picked up off to the northeast eventually.

That is several days to get its act together right? More than the time given to Arthur and other lows correct? Am I missing something causing it to die off? What keeps this thing from forming. Dry air looks to be leaving and wind shear I am not sure on.

[gatorcane]

Those storms across the sw gulf have been quite persistent today. If the shear can just drop off some, we could see something spin up. SSTs are very warm across the eastern Gulf.

Personally I think the eastern gulf should be lemoned by the nhc with 10/20 chance of development with wording "regardless of development, heavy rainfall can be expected across portions of Florida"

The area had that look since yesterday that something was trying to get going.

[NDG]

Check out this 4 hr radar loop out of Tampa Bay, you can see several vorticities and at different heights, broad circulation over all. Moderate shear is still present. Make sure you speed up the loop.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

Looks like a disorganized mess.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, if the northerly shear can ease off just a bit, there is a chance that this system could spin up. As I and gatorcane pointed out, convection has been firing rather steady, along with a combination of the daytime heating factor, all day long off the SW Florida coast.

As I mentioned earlier, it appears that the dry air which was coming down into the Northern Gulf region from yesterday has come to a halt. There has been no movement of that mid-level dry air southward today. Very moist and unstable environment on the south /southeast side of where the weak, broad Low west of Tampa Bay was initialized at 18Z. Shows well on wator vapor imagery too..

[northjaxpro]

21Z Analysis from NHC now has Low at 1011 mb.

[gatorcane]

I just looked for some buoy data offshore the West and Southwest coasts of Florida but seems all of the buoys are not reporting any pressure observations. Not sure why? Those buoys are showing water temps between 84F-86F though.

Latest saved VIS image loop. Off the west coast of Florida, where NHC has initialized a 1011MB low might be the place to watch. Convection mostly on the SE and E side right now.