Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[psyclone]

Based on the latest 12Z GFS run, low pressure or some kind of trough looks to hand along the northern Gulf coast / NE GOM for 183 hours. So it seems there is some weak steering and whatever is out there may not move out as quickly as some may hope. This could mean lot more rain for the Tampa area and points north.

I hope you're wrong but I fear you're not. regardless of what happens the deep tropical moisture residing over the area looks to be in no hurry to leave.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks impressive nonetheless, still hope the NHC mentions it with a 0-10% chance of delopment to get a sense of their opinion.

[cycloneye]

They released the 2:05 PM TWD very early before the TWO:

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the Low Pressure area ia just meandering at the current time. Supposed to slowly drift north in the next 24-36 hours.

[MGC]

Nice little circulation despite the shear and dry air. This will struggle to get going. But, at this time of the year it has to be watched. Seen these things spin up fast in the past.....MGC

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN

[ronjon]

Apparently NHC still not impressed, lol. Sure acts like a tropical depression based on the weather. I've had several heavy rain squalls this morning in Hernando County.

[TheStormExpert]

I guess looks aren't everything.

[Stormcenter]

5 days is a long time. I wish I had a crystal ball like that.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN

[NDG]

I guess looks aren't everything.

As the Day has gone by the "looks" as you mentioned are not even there, the convection closer to the coc has been sheared away and it looks to have become more elongated as I mentioned earlier.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET a little weaker this run but same general idea...that is, it moves this low currently over the EGOM slowly NE across North-Central FL and then into the Atlantic off of GA/SC where it becomes a tropical storm. By day 4, here you go. It hits the Outer banks/Eastern NC then races along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States gaining strength reaching 991MB by day 6-7. Some storm/hurricane if this were to verify with that kind of track:



days 6-7:

[Raebie]

It needs to track directly over Charlotte. Please.

[Sanibel]

Radar shows it hasn't separated from the main SW to NE flow along the front that is still headed over to the Atlantic. If it isn't strong enough to pull those bands in it won't form.

[Stormcenter]

I find it rather amusing that the NHC doesn't even mention the area in their 2pm TWO.
Yeah so maybe there is less than a 1% chance it will develop but it still should be mentioned
because it does exist in the GOM. Just my 2 cents.

They released the 2:05 PM TWD very early before the TWO:

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

[stormlover2013]

I think later this week into weekend is where we could see something spin with all that gulf moisture in gulf, euro is interesting for this weekend for florida panhandle

[NCSTORMMAN]

This thing is going to look ugly around 9 or 10 P.M. I think the best chance for this low is in the Atlantic after it crosses Florida. Convection will end up dying off because it can not wrap the convection around the CoC. So, it is just a spin with convection to its south. The end of the day around the times I gave should tell the tale. I still think it is worth watching but without wrapping anything around the center it is just an invest at best.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This "nothing" has already dumped 9 inches of rain on my house over the last 3-4 days. More on the way, I'll need to empty water out of my pool AGAIN!

[Raebie]

This "nothing" has already dumped 9 inches of rain on my house over the last 3-4 days. More on the way, I'll need to empty water out of my pool AGAIN!

Send it north to the Carolinas! TIA...

[Sanibel]

The shear is really bad. Like prohibitive.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The shear is really bad. Like prohibitive.

Tearing it apart like it is nothing.