BOB: Tropical Cyclone Komen

[Alyono]

SSD is giving this a T 2.5 now

also, may want to update the wiki article as it says nobody has died from this, when that clearly is not the case

[Alyono]

How is this not a TC? Also, why is IMD only issuing products twice a day. Do they only have a day shift?

[Alyono]

being upgraded by JTWC at 3Z

[Alyono]

now that JT called this a TC, IMD called this a deep depression

what will it take for IMD to name this?

[Alyono]

despite T numbers of 3.0, IMD is ignoring them as usual. The day shift is done there, so no further updates from them until tomorrow morning.

Maybe they'll name this once we have a concentric eye

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT pass. Supports at least 40 knts even adjusted for rain contamination.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUL 2015 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 21:33:25 N Lon : 91:12:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 987.3mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 2.9

Center Temp : -39.0C Cloud Region Temp : -58.2C

[Alyono]

ASCAT pass. Supports at least 40 knts even adjusted for rain contamination.

what, if anything, is IMD looking at, aside from getting out of night shifts?

[Yellow Evan]

My only guess is that IMD's Dvorak numbers (done by VIS analysis) is less than what on their table is 35 knots (IMD using 3-min sustained, so not sure if T2.5 is 35 knots or not according to them).

Now, what IMD is doing is inexcusable. Not only are they clinging to Dvorak too much when ASCAT is available, they're only clinging to one agency (thier own) and not factoring in other Dvorak agencies, which is a big no no.

[Alyono]

My only guess is that IMD's Dvorak numbers (done by VIS analysis) is less than what on their table is 35 knots (IMD using 3-min sustained, so not sure if T2.5 is 35 knots or not according to them).

Now, what IMD is doing is inexcusable. Not only are they clinging to Dvorak too much when ASCAT is available, they're only clinging to one agency (thier own) and not factoring in other Dvorak agencies, which is a big no no.

they are saying this is a T 2.0, which anyone with even a basic understanding of Dvorak knows is flat out wrong.

Why is that agency used by Wikipedia. They are NOT an agency that is to be trusted (just ask Myanmar after they were expecting Nargis to be about 75 kts as they used IMD)

[Alyono]

I can say, this was upgraded by the private sector to a cyclone a couple of days ago

[Yellow Evan]

My only guess is that IMD's Dvorak numbers (done by VIS analysis) is less than what on their table is 35 knots (IMD using 3-min sustained, so not sure if T2.5 is 35 knots or not according to them).

Now, what IMD is doing is inexcusable. Not only are they clinging to Dvorak too much when ASCAT is available, they're only clinging to one agency (thier own) and not factoring in other Dvorak agencies, which is a big no no.

they are saying this is a T 2.0, which anyone with even a basic understanding of Dvorak knows is flat out wrong.

Why is that agency used by Wikipedia. They are NOT an agency that is to be trusted (just ask Myanmar after they were expecting Nargis to be about 75 kts as they used IMD)

Wikipedia uses them because it's the official RMSC. Don't ask me why it's the RMSC, but it is.

[Alyono]

My only guess is that IMD's Dvorak numbers (done by VIS analysis) is less than what on their table is 35 knots (IMD using 3-min sustained, so not sure if T2.5 is 35 knots or not according to them).

Now, what IMD is doing is inexcusable. Not only are they clinging to Dvorak too much when ASCAT is available, they're only clinging to one agency (thier own) and not factoring in other Dvorak agencies, which is a big no no.

they are saying this is a T 2.0, which anyone with even a basic understanding of Dvorak knows is flat out wrong.

Why is that agency used by Wikipedia. They are NOT an agency that is to be trusted (just ask Myanmar after they were expecting Nargis to be about 75 kts as they used IMD)

Wikipedia uses them because it's the official RMSC. Don't ask me why it's the RMSC, but it is.

some common sense is needed over on the tropical storms project at Wiki. Some of the things they do defy logic, like using IMD, as they have not demonstrated competence

[Alyono]

Bangladesh just named this Komen

http://www.bmd.gov.bd/?/p/=Special-Weather-Bulletin

[Yellow Evan]

some common sense is needed over on the tropical storms project at Wiki. Some of the things they do defy logic, like using IMD, as they have not demonstrated competence

I don't disagree really, but I don't wanna get too off topic.



ECMWF brings this onshore pretty quickly.



GFS moved this offshore a little more, before bringing this inland.

Right now, I'd have this at 45/991.

[Alyono]

the models had this inland around 0Z today, however. Have not handled the monsoon circulation well.

Looks like we have another Yemyin situation where another country names it against the IMD

[Alyono]

given the reported 989mb from Chittagong and Cox's Bazar, I'd estimate the central pressure to be 984mb

[Alyono]

can we change the name to Komen? Even TWC is calling this Komen. Should not legitimize IMD

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... 1_20150730

[Yellow Evan]

45/985 mbar is likely good.

[Alyono]

45/985 mbar is likely good.

I just went with 50 kts an hour ago