ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
It's not difficult to see how stable the airmass immediately to the north of 94L is in this visible satellite image:
Actually looks like some of that stable air has wrapped around into the circulation of 94L in the above image.
GFS appears to have initialized that dry air quite well:
Actually looks like some of that stable air has wrapped around into the circulation of 94L in the above image.
GFS appears to have initialized that dry air quite well:
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
The beginning of the end for 94L.I would not want it to weaken because of the drought in Caribbean but that is what mother nature is doing at this time with El Nino ongoing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:The beginning of the end for 94L.I would not want it to weaken because of the drought in Caribbean but that is what mother nature is doing at this time with El Nino ongoing.
I agree 94l will have a few more days of life. What is interesting is that you don't have your typical El Nino shear yet. See graphics below. So IMO I don't think the El Nino is being much of a factor right now. The causes of its demise will be the continued dry stable air mass closer to the islands that has dogged the Atlantic for the last several years.
Current Wind Shear:
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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
The bulk of the shear associated with El Nino is usually found in the Caribbean, where we have in fact been observing record levels of shear thus far this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Regardless, MDR activity overall is reduced quite a bit on average during especially moderate or stronger El Niño. I think part of this is because the atmospheric pattern that tends to be associated with El Niño seems to me to have a decent correlation with drier air over the MDR. In other words, I don't think that El Nino's quieting effects are limited to just higher shear in the deep tropics.
Opinions?
Opinions?
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- gatorcane
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this wave may just be a sacrificial wave for future waves. Bot the GFS and ECMWF show some strong waves coming in behind this wave over the next 10-14 days (posted in Global model discussion thread).
What we need to watch are those waves that can make the trek across in tact enough so that once they reach an area further west (e.g. just north of the Caribbean) where they may find much more favorable conditions.
Starting to show up now on the Atlantic wide-view map (far right side):
What we need to watch are those waves that can make the trek across in tact enough so that once they reach an area further west (e.g. just north of the Caribbean) where they may find much more favorable conditions.
Starting to show up now on the Atlantic wide-view map (far right side):
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Regardless, MDR activity overall is reduced quite a bit on average during especially moderate or stronger El Niño. I think part of this is because the atmospheric pattern that tends to be associated with El Niño seems to me to have a decent correlation with drier air over the MDR. In other words, I don't think that El Nino's quieting effects are limited to just higher shear in the deep tropics.
Opinions?
Sinking air is also an issue Larry. Persistent rising air over in the Central and Eastern Pacific brings suppressed phases of Kelvin and MJO waves in the Indian Ocean/Atlantic in a broad and long term scale. The latter two is important in boosting Atlantic activity especially across the MDR. Dry air can be overcome easy when waves are enveloped, but sinking air is tougher to fight.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
I think it has a couple of things working to its benefit right now.
1) It is moving 15 mph which is a good speed for organization. A lot of times you get very fast movement of 25 mph or more which causes stacking and structural problems preventing development.
2) Wind shear seems to be favorable in the MDR (Outside Caribbean) currently.
3) It is still has a decent moisture plume that has helped shield it from the dryer air to the North.
4) SAL is far enough North to not significantly disrupt it.
I am still not sold on it making its way across though. Let's see if today's trend continues.
1) It is moving 15 mph which is a good speed for organization. A lot of times you get very fast movement of 25 mph or more which causes stacking and structural problems preventing development.
2) Wind shear seems to be favorable in the MDR (Outside Caribbean) currently.
3) It is still has a decent moisture plume that has helped shield it from the dryer air to the North.
4) SAL is far enough North to not significantly disrupt it.
I am still not sold on it making its way across though. Let's see if today's trend continues.
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- latitude_20
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Shear tendency forecast depicts decreasing wind shear out ahead of 94L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
blp wrote:I think it has a couple of things working to its benefit right now.
1) It is moving 15 mph which is a good speed for organization. A lot of times you get very fast movement of 25 mph or more which causes stacking and structural problems preventing development.
2) Wind shear seems to be favorable in the MDR (Outside Caribbean) currently.
3) It is still has a decent moisture plume that has helped shield it from the dryer air to the North.
4) SAL is far enough North to not significantly disrupt it.
I am still not sold on it making its way across though. Let's see if today's trend continues.
you right slower moving tropical wave got more chance and moving 25mph or higher
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
A tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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- northjaxpro
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Dry, stable air will eventually kill 94L before it reaches 45 Longitude. I'd be very surprised if 94L is still around by Sunday.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
00z Best Track:
AL, 94, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 118N, 296W, 25, 1009, LO
AL, 94, 2015073100, , BEST, 0, 118N, 296W, 25, 1009, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
At least this invest has lasted longer than 93L.
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