EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I'd go with 50kts as the intenisty.

Fresh GMI pass suggests a developed core:

[Kingarabian]

Hint of an eye.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 50 or 55 kt given the structure. Definitely on its way upward.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 09, 2015073018, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1277W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ,

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/0g5jX3G.jpg

Hint of an eye.

Maybe, but it might be a dry slot.

[Yellow Evan]

I do see a little dry air nearby and it doesn't have an inner core yet, but we should IMO still see fairly quick deepening. It kinda has that look right now.

That wasn't dry air and it certainly has an inner core:

5 hour old; low resolution ASMU;
http://i.imgur.com/Zfvc0ts.jpg


http://i.imgur.com/YHdurBQ.gif

Sorry hadn't looked at microwave. While there is probably some low level dry air, I am impressed by it's inner core.

Right now, 50 knts is good given microwave.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.4 / 998.7mb/ 53.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.4     3.7     3.7

[Yellow Evan]

Nothing too toxic for a while.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GUILLERMO EP092015 07/30/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 59 61 60 58 54 51 50 47 46
V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 59 61 60 58 54 51 50 47 46
V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 58 61 64 63 57 50 44 39 37 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 8 10 13 11 7 14 11 14 15 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 6 5 2 3 8 2 1 -2 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 350 342 325 317 302 282 270 249 271 267 284 263 264
SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 160 160 159 154 150 145 140 137 136 133 131
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 70 72 74 75 80 80 79 75 75 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -5 -10 -5 -1 -7 3 9 25 26 22 30
200 MB DIV 121 92 94 96 87 68 69 76 56 35 25 41 55
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 3 10 15 12 11 13 10 10 7 7
LAND (KM) 2358 2424 2497 2579 2418 2074 1780 1527 1334 1161 1021 864 697
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.4 17.4 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.1 130.5 132.1 133.7 136.8 139.4 141.5 143.1 144.5 145.7 146.9 148.2
STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 16 14 13 10 8 7 7 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 34 23 24 34 35 35 13 12 16 14 10 9 12

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 6. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 14. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. 5. 2. 1.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

Guillermo is quickly becoming better organized, and both microwave
and visible imagery suggest that the cyclone is developing a ring
of inner core convection. Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were
T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but given the quickly improving
convective structure, the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt. This
is close to the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt.

The upper-level outflow of Guillermo continues to expand, and the
storm is over very warm waters of around 29 degrees Celsius. Global
model guidance indicates that Guillermo should remain in a
light-shear environment for at least another 3 days, while also
remaining over warm water and in a moisture-laden atmosphere.
Therefore, continued strengthening is likely for the next 48 hours,
and Guillermo could become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.
Gradual weakening is forecast from day 3 through 5 due to stronger
upper-level westerly winds which could affect the cyclone. The
statistical-dynamical guidance continues to show only modest
strengthening--barely taking Guillermo to hurricane status--but
this scenario seems low given the seemingly favorable environment.
The NHC official intensity forecast remains closer to the higher
dynamical guidance and is largely unchanged from the previous
forecast.

The subtropical ridge is steering Guillermo west-northwestward, or
295/12 kt. The ridge is forecast to strengthen slightly, causing
Guillermo to accelerate during the next 36 hours. After that time,
a mid- to upper-level low well west of California is expected to
produce a break in the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to
slow down and turn northwestward by day 5. The latest track
guidance ended up lying to the west of the previous official
forecast track, and the updated NHC track has therefore been
shifted a bit to the left, especially after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 9.8N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 11.5N 133.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.4N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.2N 139.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.9N 143.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.5N 146.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.0N 148.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Latest GFDL more bullish than normal. Def think this will become a major, maybe even a Cat 4. Later brings it near Hawaii at the same intensity.



HWRF a little less bullish and more south.

[Kingarabian]

The shear forecast is complicated.

CIMSS is showing much lower shear than the SHIPS through the next 3 days, 5-10kts and SHIPS is showing 7-15kts. But after, it increases the shear to 20-30kts while the SHIPS keeps it near 15kts.

It should have plenty of juice though. The 26C isotherm is @ 20N this year.

[Yellow Evan]

The shear forecast is complicated.

CIMSS is showing much lower shear than the SHIPS through the next 3 days, 5-10kts and SHIPS is showing 7-15kts. But after, it increases the shear to 20-30kts while the SHIPS keeps it near 15kts.

It should have plenty of juice though. The 26C isotherm is @ 20N this year.

CIMSS doesn't technically forecast shear, it just shows the shear based on current conditions. Shear is decvreasing throughout much of the storm's future path in the short-term.

From time to time, SHIPS does overdue shear.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/SjVcWrC.png

Latest GFDL more bullish than normal. Def think this will become a major, maybe even a Cat 4. Later brings it near Hawaii at the same intensity.

http://i.imgur.com/zgVAgb0.png

HWRF a little less bullish and more south.

HWRF so far is doing it right. Deepen it and then weaken it as it nears Hawaii. Not sure if the GFDL is logical right now. 26C waters and 30kts of shear are almost stacked on each other. Maybe if it brings it closer to the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/SjVcWrC.png

Latest GFDL more bullish than normal. Def think this will become a major, maybe even a Cat 4. Later brings it near Hawaii at the same intensity.

http://i.imgur.com/zgVAgb0.png

HWRF a little less bullish and more south.

HWRF so far is doing it right. Deepen it and then weaken it as it nears Hawaii. Not sure if the GFDL is logical right now. 26C waters and 30kts of shear are almost stacked on each other. Maybe if it brings it closer to the Big Island.

As for the GFDL, it depends on the wind shear forecast. IF there's only 10-15 knts of shear, that wouldn't be too toxic.

I'd favor the HWRF too unless the shear is lower than forecast though.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/SjVcWrC.png

Latest GFDL more bullish than normal. Def think this will become a major, maybe even a Cat 4. Later brings it near Hawaii at the same intensity.

http://i.imgur.com/zgVAgb0.png

HWRF a little less bullish and more south.

HWRF so far is doing it right. Deepen it and then weaken it as it nears Hawaii. Not sure if the GFDL is logical right now. 26C waters and 30kts of shear are almost stacked on each other. Maybe if it brings it closer to the Big Island.

As for the GFDL, it depends on the wind shear forecast. IF there's only 10-15 knts of shear, that wouldn't be too toxic.

I'd favor the HWRF too unless the shear is lower than forecast though.

I agree. I would give the GFDL some weight, but it's Hawaii. Never know how the shear will be.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Probs nearing 55 knts now.

[Kingarabian]

Probs nearing 55 knts now.

VANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 9:45:04 N Lon : 128:16:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 4.0

[Kingarabian]

Really need a fresh MW pass to see what that is.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/de0KJjO.jpg

Really need a fresh MW pass to see what that is.

We do. Right now the core looks on VIS a hair disorganized. I mean, it's fine for a 55 knot system, but it needs to become better organized if it wants to become a hurricane tonight, which we won't know for sure without MW.

Most MW passes are between 9z and 18z in this basin.