ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

blp · #21 Postby **blp** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:39 pm

The 12z CMC is now holding onto 94l throughout the entire run.

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:49 pm

Yep models seem to be pushing off when those "unfavorable" conditions are supposed to hit each run. Not a big surprise since they seem to happen beyond about 5 days in the model runs where forecasting accuracy degrades quite a bit as far as predicting the upper-level environment out across the MDR (the NHC only goes out 5 days for a reason!)

#23 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:41 pm

The latest ECMWF run has shifted south and is more in line with the NHC graphical outlook path. The ECMWF keeps a closed low travelling west in the MDR for the next 7 days.

HurricaneFan · #24 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:00 pm

Some of the models seems to have it moving quite a bit slower than the NHC forecast.Why is that?

#25 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:25 pm

the consensus of the intensity models (IVCN) is steady intensity increase with a slow and methodical track west across the MDR. Latest 18Z guidance is out:

#26 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:28 pm

Teaser...

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:17 pm

Most intensity models are showing gradual strengthening camp with the consensus IVCN showing slow and gradual strengthening. 00Z guidance below:

Hammy · #28 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:44 pm

Didn't most of these models also show 93L becoming a tropical storm?

TheStormExpert · #29 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:09 pm

Hammy wrote:Didn't most of these models also show 93L becoming a tropical storm?

Most likely did. They've showed a HANDFUL of tropical waves that struggled to develop like 94L becoming a Tropical Storm or even Hurricane continuously. This has been the case for the past several seasons.

Hurricaneman · #30 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:22 pm

The 0zGFS has a 1015 vortmax near 13N 45W at day 5 and really doesn't do much with the energy behind this one so the fact that the GFS is keeping this longer into its run each run could be something of interest

at hr 150 show a little closed isobar so its not completely killing it

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#31 Postby **Fego** » Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:04 am

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... ml#picture

ECMWF 00z run at 96 hours, still keeping up 94L.

ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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