COMPARISONS TO FLOYD?

[AussieMark]

Could Isabel be as damaging as Floyd or slightly less or slightly more. (Potentially).

Or was Floyd an isolated incident that will never be repeated. (500-year flood levels)

[SolakNC]

Remember----floyd followed on the heels of Dennis...total rain in some areas between the 2 was 31"....we didn't have that much with Henri's remnants, but recent rains have soaked the ground....I wouldn't expect AS much flooding, but could still be bad, depending on how fast Isabel moves.

[NC George]

The rivers, and creeks are all a lot lower now then they were the day Floyd hit. The Tar river in Greenville was already almost at flood stage (13 feet) before Floyd hit, right now it's at 4 feet. When I left for work the day Floyd hit, the stream near my house was already almost at the bottom of the bridge (when I returned home from work during the hurricane the stream was flooding my yard, 50 yards away from the bridge, and the bridge was 5 feet under water, and I had to make a 10 miles detour to get home (I live just on the other side of the stream as I normally return home.) Today, the stream is a trickle, not even visible from the road over it.

Link for Tar River data:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nc/nwis/uv/?site_no=02084000&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060

I think this will be most like Fran. The local channel 9 weather dude (David Sawyer) just showed a windfield map, and it had hurricane force winds coming in at about Morehead City then over Greenville then moving over Rocky Mount and then on to Virginia before diminshing into TS force winds. He showed the eye passing right between G'ville and Washington. This portion of the NC coast is the shortest 'as-the-crow-flies' to Greenville, less than 65 miles from the water, 55 miles from the water to my house in Ayden.

[ncbird]

This will definetly not be a Floyd. Floyd drop never ending rain. If I remember correctly there were area's that recieved over 20 inches and like NC George said, we were already flooding from Dennis and the return of Dennis. I must agree with NC George that this is going to be much more like a Fran, and in fact that was what my husband and I were just talking about as we watched the 5am update come in.

Even though it is not as bad as it could have been, it is still dangerous, and we must not throw caution to the wind. I hate when they say ONLY a cat 2 on the TV.... there is nothing about a cat 2 that is ONLY.... this is a strong cat 2 and it still can take down trees and do a lot of damage.

Will be leaving from my Mobil home to go to a safer location later this morning. All those in Isabels path be safe.

ncbird

[Nature's Fury]

With my relatives living at Topsail Island, they are being told that Isabelle is a weak storm and she is nothing to worry about. Many people aren't leaving the beach to come inland as the media is confusing. Some say they should leave and some say they should leave. Hopefully with the Mandatory Evacs. today they will leave.

Angela

[North Georgia]

I read a news report this morning saying that seasoned old timers on the banks were pooh-poohing this storm, choosing to ride it out. One guy even says he's staying on his 35-foot houseboat with a bottle of rum. They all hear 'weakening storm' over and over, and hey, it's incovenient to evacuate. Much easier to just board things up and rent some movies.

[cjh034]

NC George - according to the weather channel last night North Carolina's coast is +21" above normal rainfall for the last 12 months. If that is correct the ground would be pretty saturated.

[NC George]

so there may be some flash flooding, but at least the rivers aren't full and the water has some place to go. Right now at the tar river the flow is about 600 ft^3/min, it can take around 11,000 ft^3/min before it floods. So there is room for about 10,000 ft^3/min of water before we even get to where we started with Floyd.

Another fact to consider, we had a drought here for almost 3 years prior to this year, the extra rain this year is only filling the aquifers that were severely depleted last summer. As previously noted, the stream near my house is almost dry, the rivers are low, shouldn't be a mega-flood like Floyd, just flash floods as the water gets to the river.

As a side not to the conditions, there are overcast skies, the humidity has skyrocketed compared to yesterday, and winds have become breezy at times from the N, I'd say a hurricane was a comin'

[AussieMark]

Did you know that Floyd and Isabel were similar storms.

<B>Hurricane Force Winds</B>
Floyd - 115 miles
Isabel - 115 miles

<B>Tropical Storm Force Winds</B>
Floyd - 260 miles
Isabel - 345 miles

They were also similar intensity at landfall
Floyd - 105 mph
Isabel - 100 mph

[floydchaser]

Floyd was more intense at landfall than Isabel, based on wind estimates and radar depictions. Even though Floyd weakened as he approached Wilmington, he still retained a semblance of a well defined northern eyewall. Isabel's eyewall was very unimpressive. That's why her flight level winds, which were in the 120-130 mph range, didn't reach the ground. Some of Floyd's upper level winds did reach the ground, and there was a huge disparity in wind speeds measured in the Cape Fear area (Wilmington EOC clocked a gust of 130). Floyd's surge was actually worse as well, but he was hitting an area that had already dealt with 4 previous hurricanes, including Fran which pretty much beat up everything there was to be beaten up. Flood wise, there is certainly no comparision. The only way in which Isabel was worse is that she tracked west of the major metro areas, putting them on the NE quad of the storm, while Floyd tracked to their east.

[JetMaxx]

Based on damage I've seen on tv and news websites, this was clearly the worst hurricane to strike the Outer Banks since Donna in 1960 (it looks almost as bad as Dauphin Island, Alabama after hurricane Frederic in 79').

I know Emily caused significant flooding from Pamlico Sound on Hatteras Island, but it wasn't this bad....and neither was Gloria (I don't remember seeing beach houses washed into Pamlico Sound....or inlets being cut by the storm surge in either of those hurricanes).

I imagine there are a lot of people that stayed along the Outer Banks and refused to evacuate for Isabel that tonight wish to God they'd left (I saw one on tv a few minutes ago...said he was lucky to be alive :o

[wxman57]

I believe the question was whether Isabel could be more damaging than Floyd, not stronger. Although Isabel was a bit weaker, it hit head-on into a much more populated area than did Floyd. And Isabel's larger area of TS-force winds means a much larger area was affected. There wasn't as much rain, but already more than twice as many people are without power after Isabel (probably more than that). I think Isabel could end up being more damaging than Floyd, dollar-wise. But it doesn't take wind-power to make a storm damaging. For example:

Floyd: $4.5 Billion Dollars (Cat 2)

Allison: $5+ billion dollars (weak TS at landfall, but weak remnant low when it caused all the damage in Houston in 2001).

If Floyd ends up more damaging than Isabel, it is due to the more extensive flooding.